000 AXNT20 KNHC 221153 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 653 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1140 UTC. Gale-force wind warnings have been published for two areas in the Gulf of Mexico, and for one area in the Atlantic Ocean. Area number one in the Gulf of Mexico is: a 1014 mb low pressure center is near 27N87W. A cold front extends from the low pressure center to 24N86W and 20N87W. Expect gale-force E-to-SE winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, N of 27N E of the 1014 mb low pressure center. These conditions will last for the next 12 hours or so. Area number two in the Gulf of Mexico is: NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 14 feet, S of 20N W of 95W. The gale-force wind conditions will be lasting for the next 12 hours or so. The 12-hour Atlantic Ocean forecast consists of: a cold front along 31N37W 24N50W, then a weakening stationary front from 24N50W to 22N61W. Expect E-to-SE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 13 feet, within 30N78W TO 30N80W TO 31N80W TO 31N79W TO 30N78W. Expect the gale-force wind conditions to continue for the next 36 hours or so, with the front. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECASTS: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 07N14W, and 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W, to 04N22W, 03N30W, to 02N40W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 02N to 06N between 10W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from an ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA-TEXAS area cyclonic circulation center to an interior Mexico 24N101W cyclonic circulation center. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 26N87W. A stationary front extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to the Florida west coast near 28N83W, across Florida along 28N, and northeastward to 32N79W in the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from the low pressure center, to 19N87W in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough extends from the 1014 mb low pressure center to the Florida Big Bend ear 30N85.5W. Upper level SW wind flow, that spans the entire Gulf of Mexico, is pushing multilayered moisture into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 250 nm to the east of the cold front from NW Cuba to the stationary front, and from the stationary front northward from the surface trough eastward, to 78W in the Atlantic Ocean. The current 1014 mb low pressure center will deepen as its moves northward slowly, and inland, into the Florida Big Bend by late this afternoon. The low pressure center will move slowly, toward the ESE, across southern Alabama and Georgia, to a position that is off the coast of the southeastern U.S.A., from Monday through Tuesday night. Gale-force winds are expected in the NE Gulf through early this afternoon, as the low pressure center approaches the Florida Big Bend. The cold front, that is trailing from the 1014 mb low pressure center, will sweep across the central and eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, through early this evening, and to the SE of the Gulf of Mexico early on Monday. Strong NW winds will follow the front. Widespread areas of rain, and embedded scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe with strong gusty winds and heavy rain with low visibility, will precede the front. Gale-force winds in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz tonight, will diminish to less than gale-force late this morning. The wind speeds, elsewhere, will diminish gradually, from Monday through Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N74W in Colombia, to 06N79W, beyond 07N83W. Precipitation: numerous strong from 06N to 10N between 75W and 79W. Scattered moderate to isolate strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 80W westward. The GFS model for 250 mb and for 500 mb shows a trough from the western half of Honduras to the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the coastal waters from Honduras northward from 83W westward. The cold front, that originates in the Gulf of Mexico, is reaching the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A tight surface pressure gradient, that is associated with strong high pressure that is to the north of the area, will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and high seas in the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea, and in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, through Monday morning, as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic Ocean. The cold front will move into the far western Caribbean Sea tonight. The front will reach from west central Cuba to the northeast part of Honduras by early Monday afternoon; from eastern Cuba to near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua early on Tuesday; then begin to weaken as it reaches from the Windward Passage to central Costa Rica by early Tuesday evening; and from the eastern Dominican Republic to near 13N79W by Wednesday afternoon; and dissipate by late Wednesday night. Strong northwest winds will follow behind the front, along the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua, diminishing to mainly fresh winds on Wednesday. The wind speeds that are near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale-force again tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N42W to 27N50W, and to 24N60W. A stationary front continues from 24N60W, to the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Great Inagua Island. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 12N to 21 between 50 and 75W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 18nm to the E/SE of the cold front from 22N northward. The current stationary front will weaken tonight. High pressure N of the front will become diffuse by early this evening. Strong high pressure to the north of the front will continue to allow for strong northeast to east winds through this morning. Low pressure slowly moving northward, in the NE Gulf of Mexico, will move off the southeast U.S.A. on Monday; and then it will move eastward, slowly, through Tuesday. The low pressure center will move toward the SE through Thursday. Gale-force winds are expected in the waters that are to the east of northern Florida to near 75W beginning tonight, and through late Monday afternoon. A cold front, that is trailing from the low pressure center, will move across the area, from Monday through Tuesday night, followed by strong west to northwest winds and building seas. The building wave heights are expected to be mainly to the east of the Bahamas. $$ MT