000 AXNT20 KNHC 212352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 652 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1014 mb low is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near 27N88W. This low should strengthen while it moves northeastward toward the Florida Big Bend region. Gale force winds are expected over the NE Gulf waters starting at 22/0000 UTC, and seas will range from 8-12 ft. These gale-force winds will last through Sunday morning. For more details see the Gulf of Mexico section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. Another area of NW gale force winds is expected in the SW Bay of Campeche around 22/0000 UTC. Seas will range from 8-10 ft in NE swell. These gale-force winds will continue through early Monday morning. For more details see the Gulf of Mexico section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. The Gulf low will move to the W Atlantic waters Mon. Gale-force E to SE winds are expected over the Atlantic N of 27N and W of 78W by Sun evening 22/1800 UTC. Seas will build to 14 ft as the gale develops. For more details see the Atlantic section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of western Africa near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N40W to South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 42W-47W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb low is over the north-central Gulf of Mexico near 27N88W. A cold front extends south form the low to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21N88W. A warm front extends north-east from the low to N Florida near 31N84W. Scattered moderate convection is over the E Gulf of Mexico N of 24N and E of 88W. Two gale areas are to start shortly. See above. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough over the western Caribbean, extending from 19N87W to 14N83W, is helping to support scattered moderate convection west of 80W. Dry air and subsidence is preventing deep convection over the remainder of the Caribbean basin today. High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades and high seas over the central and eastern Caribbean as well as tropical Atlantic waters through Sun night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night through Sun night. A cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel late Sun, then weaken Mon as it enters the NW Caribbean. Strong N winds will follow the front along the E coast of Nicaragua on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong high pressure is centered over the northeastern United States while a stationary front extends into the central Atlantic near 31N46W and continues southwestward to 21N74W. Between these two features, fresh to strong northeasterly winds are occurring across much of the SW northern Atlantic. High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 29N24W dominates the reminder of the central and eastern Atlantic. The stationary front will weaken tonight. High pressure N of the front will support strong NE to E winds over the waters N of 22N tonight. Gale force winds are expected over the W Atlantic Sun evening. See above. A low will shift E along 30N and cross 65W by Wed night. Another 1007 mb low will form over the W Atlantic near 27N73W Wed. $$ Formosa