000 AXNT20 KNHC 211751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1251 PM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A non-tropical area of low pressure has developed over the north- central Gulf of Mexico and as of 1500 UTC was located near 26N89W. This low should strengthen while it moves northeastward toward the Florida Big Bend region later in the weekend. Gale force winds are expected over the NE Gulf waters starting at 22/0000 UTC, and seas will range from 8-12 ft over the NE Gulf during the event. These gale-force winds will last through Sunday morning. For more details see the Gulf of Mexico section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. Another area of NW gale force winds is expected to develop in the SW Bay of Campeche Sunday morning around 22/1200 UTC. Seas will range from 8-10 ft in NE swell. These gale-force winds will continue through early Monday morning. For more details see the Gulf of Mexico section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. The Gulf low will move over the SW Atlantic waters early next week. Gale-force E to SE winds are expected to develop ahead of the approaching low N of 22N and W of 55W by Monday morning at 1200 UTC. Seas will build to 12 to 16 ft as the gales develop. For more details see the Atlantic section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of western Africa near 09N13W to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N30W to 03N49W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along and within 150 n mi of the ITCZ between 26W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a strong surface high over the eastern U.S. and developing low pressure over the central Gulf is producing fresh to strong northeasterly to easterly winds across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. As of 1500 UTC, a warm front extends from 30N83W to 28N90W, and then transitions to a surface trough that continues southward to a 1018 mb low near 26N89W to 22N88W. Strong to near-gale-force winds are north of the front. Scattered moderate convection with thunderstorms are east of the trough to 84W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds cover the western Gulf. Low pressure will deepen as its moves NE across N Florida and S Georgia. Gale force winds are expected over the NE Gulf tonight as the low approaches the Florida Big Bend. A cold front trailing the low will sweep across the central and eastern Gulf through late Sun. Strong NW winds will follow the front, with gale force winds expected off the coast of Veracruz late tonight. Winds will gradually diminish Mon through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough over the western Caribbean, extending from 19N87W to 14N83W, is helping to support scattered moderate convection west of 82W. Dry air and subsidence is preventing deep convection over the remainder of the Caribbean basin today. Fresh to strong northeast winds prevail north of the Colombia coast to 16N. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate winds cover the eastern and western Caribbean. High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades and large seas over the central and eastern Caribbean as well as tropical Atlantic waters through Sun night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night through Sun. A cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel late Sun, then weaken Mon as it enters the NW Caribbean. Strong N winds will follow the front along the E coast of Nicaragua on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong high pressure is centered over the northeastern United States while a stationary front extends into the central Atlantic near 31N46W and continues southwestward to 21N74W. Between these two features, fresh to strong northeasterly winds are occurring across much of the SW northern Atlantic. High pressure of 1025 mb centered near 29N24W dominates the reminder of the central and eastern Atlantic. The stationary front extending from 24N65W to the southern Bahamas will weaken today. High pressure N of the front will support strong NE to E winds over the waters N of 22N through tonight. Low pressure is expected to develop over the NE Gulf of Mexico by later this afternoon, then enter the Atlc near 31N Mon night. Gale force winds are expected E of northern Florida Sun night as the low deepens. The low will shift east of the area through mid week. A trailing cold front will move across the area Mon through Tue night, followed by strong winds and building seas. $$ Latto