000 AXNT20 KNHC 211201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force wind warnings have been published for two areas in the Gulf of Mexico, and for one area in the Atlantic Ocean. Area number one in the Gulf of Mexico is: an 18-hour forecast, that consists of a surface trough along 22N87W to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 27N87W, to 29N86W. Expect SE-to-S gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet, within 26N85W TO 26N87W TO 28N87W TO 28N86W TO 26N85W. Area number two in the Gulf of Mexico is: a 24-hour forecast, that consists of NW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, within 18N94W TO 19N96W TO 20N96W TO 21N96W TO 20N95W TO 18N94W. The 36-hour Atlantic Ocean forecast consists of: a cold front along 31N37W 25N47W. Expect E-to-SE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 11 feet, within 27N69W TO 27N80W TO 31N81W TO 31N76W TO 29N69W TO 27N69W Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECASTS: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N17W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W, to 03N23W, 02N37W, to the Equator along 41W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 03N to 06N between 30W and 47W. Isolated moderate from 06N southward from 30W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... One surface trough is in the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 23N to 26N from 87W eastward into the Straits of Florida. A second surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, with a ridge along 85W/86W. Upper level moisture is moving from interior sections of Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong E winds prevail east of the central Gulf of Mexico surface trough. Low pressure will develop along this trough today, then deepen as its moves NE across N Florida and S Georgia. Gale force winds are expected in the NE Gulf tonight as the low approaches the Florida Big Bend. A cold front trailing from the low pressure center will sweep across the central and eastern sections of the Gulf today and tomorrow. Strong NW winds will follow the front, with gale force winds expected off the coast of Veracruz late tonight. Winds will diminish gradually from Monday through Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 700 mb shows a trough that extends from the coast of Honduras to NW Cuba. A surface trough curves from the coastal waters of SE Nicaragua, into the coastal waters of Honduras, to NE Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the north and east of the surface trough. The GFS model from the surface to at least 700 mb shows broad low pressure/cyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 120 nm of the coast of Central America from the western half of Panama to 20N off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Isolated moderate is from 20N northward from 80W westward. High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and large seas in the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea, and in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, through Sunday night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale force at night through Sunday. A cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel late Sun, then weaken on Monday, as it enters the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong N winds will follow the front along the E coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N58W, to 26N63W, to 21N70W, into the Windward Passage. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 28N to 33N between 55W and 63W, and within 120 nm on either side of 24N64W 21N70W 19N76W in the Windward Passage. A stationary front is within 320 nm to the east of the upper level trough. The front is along 31N45W 26N60W 23N70W, into SE Cuba. Precipitation: upper level SE wind flow is pushing multilayered broken to overcast clouds toward the northeast. The multilayered clouds are within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N50W to 24N60W. The current stationary front will weaken today. High pressure N of the front will support strong NE to E winds in the waters N of 23N through tonight. Low pressure is expected to develop in the NE Gulf of Mexico later today, then enter the Atlc near 31N Mon night. Gale force winds are expected E of northern Florida Sun night as the low deepens. A trailing cold front will move across the area Mon through Tue night, followed by strong winds and building seas. $$ MT