000 AXNT20 KNHC 210519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force wind warnings have been published for two areas in the Gulf of Mexico, and for one area in the Atlantic Ocean. Area number one in the Gulf of Mexico is a: 24-hour forecast, that consists of a surface trough along 22N87W to a new 1013 mb low pressure center near 27N87W, to 29N86W. Expect SE-to-S gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 25 knots to 35 knots, within 26N85W to 26N87W to 28N87W to 28N86W to 26N85W. Area number two in the Gulf of Mexico is a: 33-hour forecast, that consists of NW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, within 18N94W to 19N96W to 20N96W to 21N96W to 20N95W to 18N94W. The 48-hour Atlantic Ocean forecast consists of a 1007 mb low pressure center, inland, near 32N85W. A cold front will be along 31N36W 25N46W, weakening to a stationary front to 23N57W 23N65W. Expect SE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 13 feet to 17 feet, within 28N78W to 28N79W to 30N80W to 31N80W to 31N78W to 28N78W. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC; and the latest OFFSHORE FORECASTS: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC; or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W, to 03N30W, 02N43W, crossing the Equator along 48W, into the coastal sections of Brazil near 01S49W. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 250 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 29W and 45W. Isolated moderate along and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 29W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... One surface trough is in the central Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 26N northward between 87W and 92W. A second surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, with a ridge along 86W/87W. Upper level moisture is moving from interior sections of Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico. Strong NE winds prevail in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and in the Straits of Florida, as a trough persists in the central Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure will develop along the trough on Saturday, then move NE and deepen through Sunday night, as it crosses N Florida and S Georgia. Gale-force winds are expected in the NE Gulf of Mexico on Saturday night, as the low pressure center approaches the Florida Big Bend. A cold front, trailing from the low pressure center, will sweep across the central and eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico during this weekend. Strong NW winds will follow the front. Gale-force winds are expected in the far SW Gulf off the coast of Veracruz on Saturday night. The wind speeds will diminish gradually, from Monday through Tuesday night, as high pressure settles in the NW Gulf of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 700 mb shows a trough that extends from the coast of Honduras to NW Cuba. A surface trough curves from the coastal waters of NE Nicaragua, into the coastal waters of Honduras, to NE Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm to the north and east of the surface trough. The GFS model from the surface to at least 700 mb shows broad low pressure/cyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 100 nm of the coast of Central America from the western half of Panama to NE Nicaragua. Fresh W wind flow will persist along the coast of Honduras this evening, as winds funnel between the coastline and a trough that is about 60 nm N of the coast of Honduras. High pressure to the N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and large sea heights in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, and in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through Sunday night. The winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale-force speeds at night through Sunday. A cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel late on Sunday. The front will weaken on Monday, as it enters the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong N winds will follow the front along the E coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday and Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through Bermuda, to 26N68W, to the Bahamas near 23N74W, toward SE Cuba. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 30N to 32N between 60W and 70W, and from 20N to 24N between 70W and Cuba near 78W. A surface cold front is about 480 nm to the east of the upper level trough. The front passes through 32N40W, to 29N50W, to 26N60W, and 25N66W. A stationary front continues from 25N66W, to the SE Bahamas near 22N73W, to SE Cuba. Precipitation: upper level SE wind flow is pushing multilayered broken to overcast clouds toward the northeast. The multilayered clouds are within 420 nm to the northwest of the cold front. The current stationary front will weaken tonight and Saturday. Strong high pressure N of the front will support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds in the waters that are N of 23N through Saturday night. A low pressure center is expected to develop in the NE Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night. The low pressure center is forecast to enter the Atlantic Ocean near 31N on Monday night. Gale-force winds are expected E of northern Florida late on Sunday and on Sunday night, as the low pressure center deepens. A trailing cold front will move across the area, from Monday through Tuesday night, followed by strong winds and building seas. $$ MT