000 AXNT20 KNHC 202308 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 608 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A non-tropical area of low pressure will develop over the north- central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. This low should strengthen while it moves northeastward toward the Florida Big Bend region later in the weekend. Gale force winds are expected over the NE Gulf waters Saturday night, 22/0000 UTC, from 26N-28N between 86W- 87W. Seas will range from 9-12 ft. These gale force winds will last through Sunday morning, 22/1200 UTC. For more details see the Gulf of Mexico section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. Another area of NW gale force winds is expected to develop in the SW Bay of Campeche on 22/0300 UTC. Seas will range from 8-10 ft in NE swell. These gale force winds will continue through Sunday morning, 22/1200 UTC. For more details see the Gulf of Mexico section below and the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N36W to NE Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along and within 250 n mi north of the ITCZ between 26W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A strong surface high over the eastern U.S. is causing fresh to strong northeasterly to easterly winds across much of the Gulf of Mexico today. There are a couple of surface troughs, one over the central Gulf, analyzed from 22N86W to 30N90W, and another over the western Bay of Campeche, analyzed from 27N97W to 28N96W, that are likely strengthening the winds. U.S. Doppler radar shows moderate rain showers moving off the Texas and NE Mexican coastline. No significant convection is noted across the Gulf otherwise. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong easterly winds east of the central Gulf trough, with moderate winds west of this feature. There is also moderate southeasterly winds off the Texas coast. Strong NE winds prevail over the eastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida as a low pressure trough persists over the central Gulf. Low pressure will develop along this trough on Saturday, then move NE and deepen through Sunday night as it crosses northern Florida. Gale force winds are expected over the NE Gulf Saturday night as the low approaches the Florida Big Bend. An associated cold front will sweep across the central and eastern Gulf this weekend. Strong NW winds will follow the front, with gale force winds expected over the far SW Gulf off the coast of Veracruz. Winds will gradually diminish Monday through Tuesday night as high pressure settles over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough over the Gulf of Honduras, analyzed from 17N82W to 16N89W, is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms from 14N-19N between 79W-87W. A trough is analyzed in the Windward Passage but no significant convection is associated with it. Upper level ridging dominates the rest of the basin which is inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong northerly and westerly winds in the Gulf of Honduras along with strong winds north of Colombia. Fresh winds are also seen in the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are noted in the SW basin. Strong W flow will persist near the coast of Honduras this evening as winds funnel between the coastline and a low pressure trough about 60 nm N of the coast of Honduras. High pressure N of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades and large seas over the central and eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week. Winds near the coast of Colombia will pulse to near gale force speeds at night through Sunday. A cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel late Sunday, then weaken Mon as it crosses the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong N winds will follow the front over the western Caribbean through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N46W to 28N58W where it becomes stationary and extends to eastern Cuba. Low- level convergence near the front and an upper-level trough are producing scattered showers within 150 nm of the stationary front. There is a weak surface trough over the Windward Passage but no significant convective activity is observed near it. Seas are highest, up to 13 ft, behind the front near the Bahamas where northeasterly winds are strong. Otherwise, a 1023 mb surface high near 27N32W dominates the central and eastern Atlantic. This high pressure system and abundant dry air in the middle and upper- levels of the atmosphere are producing widespread fair weather across the central and eastern Atlantic. The stationary front will weaken tonight and Saturday. Strong high pressure N of the front will support strong to near gale force NE to E winds over the waters N of 23N through Saturday. Low pressure is expected to develop in the NE Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Saturday night, then head NE across northern Florida Sunday and Sunday night. Gale force winds are expected E of northern Florida late Sunday and Sunday night as the low deepens. A trailing cold front will move across the area Monday through Tuesday night, followed by strong winds and building seas. $$ AKR