000 AXNT20 KNHC 201137 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 637 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient is leading to a small area of NE to E gale force winds 60 nm off the coast of Florida from 25N to 27N. Seas will range from 9-14 ft. This gale force wind event will continue through this evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N30W to NE Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen within 280 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 33W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging remains in control across the Gulf of Mexico. This is being anchored by a 1033 mb high in the Carolinas. There is a trough in the western Bay of Campeche analyzed from 18N94W to 22N97W. A second trough is analyzed from the Yucatan Channel to 25N87W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northeast to east winds on either side of the trough in the eastern and central Gulf with moderate winds west of 90W in the western Gulf. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail over much of the eastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. These winds will continue today as a surface trough develops over the central Gulf. An area of low pressure will begin to develop along the trough in the north- central Gulf early Sat and deepen as it moves northeastward through Sun evening, crossing northern Florida. An associated cold front will sweep across the central and eastern Gulf this weekend, followed by strong west to northwest winds. Winds will diminish Mon and Tue as high pressure settles over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is draped across the northwestern Caribbean from 21N79W to the Gulf of Honduras near 15N87W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of this front. Additionally, an upper level disturbance is digging across the NW Caribbean. This is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW Caribbean in the near waters of Panama, Costa Rica to Nicaragua. Upper level ridging covers the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection over PR and the most of the Lesser Antilles. A surface trough is visible in the latest scatterometer data extending from 17N72W to 22N72W. Moderate to fresh easterly trades is present over the eastern and central Caribbean while fresh to strong are seen north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A stationary front across the NW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds W of the front, with funneling effects inducing an area of strong to near gale force westerly winds north of Honduras. The front will gradually weaken through tonight. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades and high seas in the tropical north Atlantic and most of the Caribbean through Mon. A cold front will move into the western Caribbean Sun night, and reach from eastern Cuba to the coast of southern Nicaragua on Tue. Fresh northwest to north winds will follow this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic, from 31N53W to 23N72W, then stalls from 23N71W to central Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is along the boundary. Scattered showers are present 180 nm behind the stationary front in the central Bahamas. Surface ridging covers the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N33W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind the cold front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front. A slow moving frontal boundary extends from 26N65W to central Cuba. The front will weaken and become stationary by tonight. Strong high pressure N of the front will allow fresh to strong NE winds to continue S of 28N through Sun morning. A low pressure area expected to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sat will move across northern Florida Sun through Mon. Gale force east to southeast winds are possible east of northern Florida Sun night and Mon as the low deepens. A trailing cold front will move across the area early Mon through Tue night, followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. $$ MMT