000 AXNT20 KNHC 200557 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1257 AM EST Fri Dec 20 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tight pressure gradient is leading to a small area of N to NE gale force winds 60 nm off the coast of Florida from 25N to 27N. Seas will range from 9-14 ft. This gale force wind event will subside early in the evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 04N09W to 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N28W to NE Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered showers are seen within 180 nm from the ITCZ between 32W-37W. North of the ITCZ, a line of moderate convection is present from 03N-04N between 34W-42W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues to spread across the Gulf of Mexico following the strong cold front that went through yesterday. This is being anchored by a 1033 mb high in the Ohio Valley. There is a trough in the western Bay of Campeche analyzed from 18N94W to 22N97W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong northerly winds in the western Bay of Campeche west of the trough with moderate to fresh N to NE winds east of the trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds are in the western Gulf with fresh to strong NE winds in the eastern Gulf. The tight gradient in place from strong high pressure well north of the area is allowing for strong north to northeast to east winds over much of the eastern Gulf and Straits of Florida. These winds will continue through Fri as a north to south aligned surface trough develops over the central Gulf. Strong east winds will occur to the east of this trough through late Fri night as low pressure begins to develop along the trough over or near the north-central Gulf by early on Sat and move northeastward to the NE Gulf while deepening during the rest of Sat and through Sun evening before it moves inland the Florida panhandle Sun. A cold front trailing from this low will sweep across the central and eastern Gulf Sat through Sun night followed by strong west to northwest winds. These winds will diminish early next week as high pressure settles in over the NW Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is draped across the northwestern Caribbean from 21N80W to the Gulf of Honduras near 15N87W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of this front. Additionally, an upper level disturbance is digging across the NW Caribbean. This is enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW Caribbean near northeast waters of Costa Rica to Nicaragua, from 10N-14N and west of 80W. Upper level ridging covers the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection. Thunderstorms are seen in the Mona Passage but Puerto Rico eastward into the Lesser Antilles have benign conditions. A surface trough is visible in the latest scatterometer data extending from 17N72W to 23N70W. Moderate to fresh easterly trades is present over the eastern and central Caribbean while fresh to strong are seen north of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A stationary front across the northwest Caribbean extending from central Cuba to 20N83W and to the central Gulf of Honduras is supporting strong northerly winds and high seas west of the front from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will gradually weaken through Fri night. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades and high seas in the tropical north Atlantic and most of the Caribbean through Mon. A cold front will move into the western Caribbean Sea Sun night into Mon and reach from near eastern Cuba to near the coast of southern Nicaragua on Tue. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front extends across the central and western Atlantic, from 31N53W to 23N71W, then stalls from 23N71W to central Cuba near 22N78W. Scattered moderate convection is along the boundary. Broad area of scattered showers is present behind the stationary front in the central and Northern Bahamas. A tail end of a second front is seen behind it from 31N60W to 29N67W, with scattered showers present about 80 nm ahead of the front. Surface ridging covers the rest of the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high near 27N37W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds behind the cold front with fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front. A cold front extends from near 26N65W to 24N72W and continues stationary to central Cuba. The cold front will reach from near 26N65W to east-central Cuba late tonight then become stationary. Strong northeast winds and high seas will continue over much of the area to the northwest of the front as it completely becomes stationary and weakens through Fri night. It will begin to drift northward over the weekend. A low pressure center is expected to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early on Sat, and move across northern Florida Sun through Mon and to the northwest and north-central waters Mon afternoon through Tue night. Gale force east to southeast winds are possible east of northern Florida Sun night and Mon as the low deepens. A trailing cold front will move across the western and central waters from late Sun night through Tue night followed by strong west to northwest winds and building seas. $$ MMT