000
AXNT20 KNHC 191722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1222 PM EST Thu Dec 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N31W to 01S46W 
in NE Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-04S      
between 04W-09W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-01S
between 22W-29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N
between 32W-39W.  

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1033 mb high is over Kentucky near 37N84W producing 10 kt NE to
E flow over the N Gulf of Mexico. 15-25 kt NE surface winds are
over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida due to the tightening
of the surface pressure gradient near a front. Isolated moderate 
convection persists over the Straits of Florida. Broken to
overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds remains over most of the 
Gulf of Mexico S of 27N. 

Winds and seas will gradually diminish today as the high shifts 
northeastward. Strong NE to E winds will continue across the SE 
Gulf and through the Straits of Florida through Fri night as the 
cold front stalls over the Caribbean Sea. A north to south 
aligned surface trough will develop across the central Gulf Fri, 
with strong E winds covering the Gulf E of trough. Low pressure is
expected to develop from the trough over NE Gulf by early Sat and
move across northern Florida this weekend. Gale force winds are 
possible in the NE Gulf late Sat through Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong cold front across the NW Caribbean extending
from central Cuba near 22N78W to near Grand Cayman to N central 
Honduras near 16N85W is supporting strong northerly winds and 
high seas NW of the front from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of
Honduras. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
front. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 12N and W of 79W. 

The front will gradually stall and weaken tonight through Fri. 
High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong 
trades and high seas in the tropical north Atlantic and most of 
the Caribbean through Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A strong cold front continues pressing south and east in the 
western Atlantic, from 31N64W to 24N74W to central Cuba near
22N78W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the 
front. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds are NW of
the front to Florida. A 1025 mb high is over the central Atlantic
near 27N38W. A stationary front is over the E Atlantic from 
31N18W to 23N34W. 

The latest scatterometer data depicts strong northerly winds 
behind the cold front in the western Atlantic, with moderate to 
fresh south to southwest winds ahead of the front. Moderate to 
fresh northeast to east winds are seen across the Atlantic north 
of the ITCZ from 04N to 20N.

The cold front will reach from 31N51W to 25N70W to the E Cuba 
tonight then begin to stall. Strong NE winds and high seas are 
expected across much of the area NW of the front, as it stalls and
weaken through Fri night, then begins to drift northward over the
weekend. A low pressure center is expected to develop in the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sat, and move across northern Florida on
Sun. Gale force E to SE winds are possible east of northern 
Florida Sun night and Mon as the low intensifies.

$$
Formosa