000 AXNT20 KNHC 191152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 652 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point west to 00N45W in NE Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S-05N between 17W-35W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the section above for details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front that previously moved across the basin has exited the area leaving fresh to strong with a few gusts up to gale force winds in the Bay of Campeche and the eastern Gulf. A 1030 mb high pressure centered over Texas is in control across the basin. The high pressure over Texas and Louisiana is supporting strong to near gale force N to NE winds over most of the basin. Winds and seas will gradually diminish today as the high shifts northeastward. Strong NE to E winds will continue in the Straits of Florida through Fri night. A low pressure area is expected to develop from a surface trough over the eastern Gulf by early Sat and move across northern Florida this weekend. Gale force winds are possible in the NE Gulf Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the western Caribbean from 21N79W to 15N85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and ahead of the front from 15N85W to 21N80W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean associated to the Pacific monsoon trough. Upper-level ridging extends across the eastern Caribbean, inhibiting deep convection. Low-topped showers can be seen moving across the area. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh easterly trades north of Colombia with fresh to strong winds in the eastern and central Caribbean. Light winds are east of the front, with fresh to strong winds prevail behind the front. A strong cold front across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to northern Honduras is supporting strong to near gale force northerly winds west of the front from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will gradually stall and weaken through tonight. High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong trades and high seas in the tropical north Atlantic and most of the Caribbean through Sun. The strong frontal northerlies will bring heavy rainfall across northwest Honduras to Puerto Barrios in central Guatemala. The heaviest rainfall will occur through today with maxima of 6-8 inches. Due to strong topographical forcing, localized maxima is expected to be between 10-12 inches. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues pressing south and east in the western Atlantic, from 31N67W to 22N78W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of the front. Another cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N18W and stretches westward to 24N40W and weakens to a dissipating stationary front to 28N49W. Low-topped showers are seen within 90 nm of these feature. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 27N40W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong northerly winds behind the cold front in the western Atlantic, with moderate to fresh south to southwest winds ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are seen across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ from 04N to 20N. The strong cold front near the Bahamas will reach from 26N65W to the Windward Passage tonight. Strong NE winds and high seas are expected across much of the area NW of the front, which will stall and weaken through Fri night. A low pressure center is expected to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sat, and move across northern Florida on Sun. Gale force E to SE winds are possible east of northern Florida Sun night and Mon as the low intensifies. $$ MMT