000 AXNT20 KNHC 190603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 AM EST Thu Dec 19 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The cold front that was moving across the Gulf of Mexico has moved away from the basin and enter the western Caribbean this evening. Gale force winds continue to affect the southern Gulf waters in two areas: over the Bay of Campeche S of 22N and W of 95W, and in the Yucatan Channel S of 24N between 85W-95W. Scatterometer data depicted these winds very well, and recent observations in the NW Caribbean have reported gale-force winds. Seas will range between 13-19 ft over the Bay of Campeche, and between 10-15 ft over the Yucatan Channel. These conditions will continue through tonight. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point west to 02S41W in NE Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 350 nm on N side of the ITCZ between 16W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the section above for details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front that previously moved across the basin has exited the area this evening leaving strong to gale force winds in the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Channel. High pressure behind the front is covering most of the Gulf. Aside from the gale-force wind areas, strong winds cover the eastern half of the Gulf along the Florida Peninsula in addition to the SW Gulf with moderate to fresh off the SE Texas coast. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the area and the earlier strong cold front presently over the NW Caribbean Sea is resulting in strong to minimal gale force northerly winds and large seas over much of the eastern, central and SW Gulf, including the vicinity of the Yucatan Channel. These conditions will slowly subside through Thu. Strong northeast to east winds will continue in the Straits of Florida, after the frontal passage, through Fri. Low pressure is expected to develop in the N central Gulf on Friday night, and move across northern Florida during the weekend. Gale force winds and hazardous marine conditions are possible in the NE Gulf and eastern part of the central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the western Caribbean from 21N81W to 15N86W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and ahead of the front from the Gulf of Honduras north to west Cuba between 82W-86W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean associated to the Pacific monsoon trough. Upper-level ridging extends across the eastern Caribbean, inhibiting deep convection. Low-topped showers can be seen moving across the area. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong trades north of Colombia with fresh to strong winds in the eastern and central Caribbean. Light winds are east of the front, with fresh to strong winds prevail behind the front. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from the tropical north Atlantic westward, to the south central Caribbean through Sat. A strong cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel this afternoon with gale force northerly winds immediately behind it through the Yucatan Channel through this evening. The front will stall and weaken from central Cuba to Honduras by Thursday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will accompany the front across the NW Caribbean Sea. The strong frontal northerlies will bring heavy rainfall across northwest Honduras to Puerto Barrios in central Guatemala. The heaviest rainfall will occur through Thursday with maxima of 6-8 inches. Due to strong topographical forcing, localized maxima is expected to be between 10-12 inches. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues pressing south and east in the western Atlantic, from 31N71W to 23N79W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of the front. Another cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N19W and stretches westward to a 1020 low near 26N43W and continues as a stationary front to 28N49W. Low-topped showers are seen within 90 nm of these feature. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high near 28N42W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong northerly winds behind the cold front in the western Atlantic, with moderate to fresh south to southwest winds ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are seen across the Atlantic north of the ITCZ from 04N to 20N. A strong cold front extending from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba will each from near 31N69W to eastern Cuba late tonight, from near 31N64W to eastern Cuba early Thu and from near 26N65W to across the southeastern Bahamas and to near he Windward Passage on Thu night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected across much of the forecast waters following the frontal passage. The front will stall gradually, and weaken through Fri night. It is possible that fresh to strong easterly winds may develop to the east of Florida during the upcoming weekend. A low pressure center is forecast to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and move across northern Florida Sun into Mon. $$ MMT