000 AXNT20 KNHC 190004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 704 PM EST Wed Dec 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The cold front that was moving across the Gulf of Mexico has moved away from the basin, entering the western Caribbean. Gale force winds continue to affect the southern Gulf waters in two areas: over the Bay of Campeche S of 22N and W of 95W, and near the Yucatan Channel S of 24N between 85W-95W. Scatterometer data depicted these winds very well, and recent ship observations (locator ID 9HJD9) have reported gale-force winds near the northwest tip of Cuba. Seas will range between 13-19 ft over the Bay of Campeche, and between 10-15 ft over the Yucatan Channel. These conditions will continue through tonight. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 06N11W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point west to 00N31W to NE Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the section above for details on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front that previously moved across the basin has exited the area this evening. High pressure is filling in behind the front and is covering most of the Gulf. Aside from the gale-force wind areas, strong winds cover the eastern half of the Gulf in addition to the SW Gulf with moderate northerly winds off the SE Texas coast. Gale winds will slowly subside through Thu over the central and western sections of the Gulf. Strong northeast to east winds will continue in the Straits of Florida, after the frontal passage, through Fri. A low pressure center is expected to develop in the N central Gulf on Friday night, and move across northern Florida during the weekend. Gale-force winds are possible in the NE Gulf with the low pressure center. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the western Caribbean from 22N82W to 16N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and ahead of the front mainly W of 82W. The 1006 mb Colombian low has meandered into the SW Caribbean near 11N76W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted throughout this area, S of 13N between 76W-84W. Upper-level ridging extends across the eastern Caribbean, inhibiting deep convection. Low-topped showers can be seen moving across the area. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong trades north of Colombia with fresh to strong winds in the eastern and central Caribbean. Light winds are east of the front, with fresh to strong winds prevail behind the front. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and building seas from the tropical north Atlantic westward, to the south central Caribbean through Sat. The front will stall and weaken from central Cuba to Honduras by Thursday night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will accompany the front across the NW Caribbean Sea. The strong frontal northerlies will bring heavy rainfall across northwest Honduras to Puerto Barrios in central Guatemala. The heaviest rainfall will occur on Wednesday to Thursday with maxima of 6-8 inches. Due to strong topographical forcing, localized maxima is expected to be between 10-12 inches. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues pressing south and east in the western Atlantic, from 31N72W to 24N80W. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are seen within 100 nm of the front. Another cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N24W and stretches westward to a 1020 low near 26N44W to 28N50W. A pre-frontal trough is also analyzed ahead of this front from 31N17W to 26N27W. Showers are seen within 90 nm of these features. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high near 28N42W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong northerly winds behind the cold front in the western Atlantic, with moderate to fresh southerly winds ahead of the front. The strong cold front will reach from 31N69W to eastern Cuba tonight and from 31N64W to eastern Cuba on Thursday morning. By Thursday night, the front will stretch from 26N65W across the Bahamas to the Windward Passage. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected across much of the forecast waters following the frontal passage. The front will stall gradually, and weaken through Friday night. It is possible that fresh to strong easterly winds may develop to the east of Florida during the upcoming weekend. A low pressure center is forecast to develop in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and move across northern Florida. $$ ERA