000 AXNT20 KNHC 171122 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 17/0900 UTC, a cold front over the NW Gulf extends from 30N80W south of Tampico, Mexico. ASCAT data indicates 30 to 35 kt Northerly wind over the NW portion of the Gulf behind the front. Scattered moderate showers and isolated strong tstorms are developing along the front north of 24N between 86W-91W. North winds to 30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force are expected to continue behind the front off the coast of Texas. By Tue morning, winds of 30-40 kt are expected to develop in the SW Gulf, mainly south of 27N and west of 94W. Gales are expected to persist in the waters off Veracruz into Wed afternoon. High seas are expected across most of the area. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N13W, then the ITCZ continues to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02S-03N between 08W-27W. GULF OF MEXICO... Pleas see Special Features section in regards to the Gulf of Mexico Cold front. Cold front continues to move southeast across the Gulf of Mexico enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong tstorms north of 24N and west of 85W. Surface ridging covers the eastern Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT data indicates light to moderate SE wind across the eastern and central Gulf with the exception of an area of fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N-25N between 86W-90W. The strong cold front will move SE across the Gulf and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight, then cross the SE Gulf on Wed. Northerly gale force winds and very large seas will prevail behind the front, mainly W of 90W, through Wed. Strong northerly winds behind the front will result in heavy rainfall amounts between the Mexican Sates of Veracruz and Tabasco/ Campeche today into Wed. Winds and seas will diminish over the central and western Gulf Thu and Thu night. Strong NE to E winds will continue over the Straits of Florida after the frontal passage Thu through Fri night. Low pressure may develop over the eastern Gulf Fri night and move across Florida this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean, while upper-level ridging covers the southern portion of the basin. Upper-level diffluence between these upper-level features is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 15N-20N between 75W-87W, including the waters west of Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. The weather is quieter over the central and eastern basin, with isolated showers seen stretching from the northern Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A 1007 mb low pressure over Northern Colombia with Pacific monsoon trough continuing westward is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection over Panama and Colombia. Strong gradient across the Caribbean is increasing easterly trades across the basin from the Windward Passage south to Colombia. ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades and building seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue through Wed as high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. Strong winds will persist near the coast of Colombia through Sat night. A strong cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Wed, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wed night, then become stationary and weaken over the NW Caribbean Thu into Thu night. Strong northerly winds behind the front will result in heavy rainfall amounts over NW Honduras to central Guatemala Wed into Thu. Winds and seas will gradually diminish over the NW Caribbean Fri into Sat. Mixed northerly swell and easterly wind waves will maintain seas 8 ft or greater over the Tropical N Atlantic waters for the next several days before diminishing on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N45W to 28N60W, then stalls at that point to 26N74W. Isolated showers are along the front. A 1026 mb highs is centered near 32N62W and a 1024 mb high further east is centered near 28N48W, respectively. A weakening cold front emerges off the coast of Western Sahara near 19N16W to 23N42W. No significant convection accompanies the front. ASCAT shows moderate to fresh across much of the basin as strong high pressure remains in control. A stationary front will weaken later today. A strong cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast late Tue night, extend from near 31N70W to western Cuba on Wed night, and then from 27N65W across the central Bahamas to central Cuba on Thu night. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected across much of the forecast waters following frontal passage. The front will gradually stall over the central waters Fri and Fri night, then lift northward Sat and Sat night as developing low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico crosses Florida. $$ Torres