000 AXNT20 KNHC 170556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 AM EST Tue Dec 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... As of 17/0300 UTC, a cold front has emerged off the Texas coast extending from 29N91W to 24N97W near Tampico, Mexico. ASCAT data indicates 30 to 35 kt Northerly wind over the NW portion of the Gulf extending 130 nm offshore behind the cold front. Scattered moderate showers and isolated strong tstorms are developing along the front and extend 80 nm behind the front. North winds to 30 kt with frequent gusts to gale force are expected to continue tonight behind the front off the coast of Texas. By Tue morning, winds of 30-40 kt are expected to develop in the SW Gulf, mainly south of 27N and west of 94W. Gales are expected to persist in the waters off Veracruz into Wed afternoon. High seas are expected across most of the area. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes through coastal sections of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N259 to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02S-04N between 07W-25W, and north of the ITCZ from 04N-07N between 33W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... Pleas see Special Features section in regards to the Gulf of Mexico Cold front. Cold front has moved off the Texas coast this evening enhancing scattered moderate to isolated strong tstorms north of 26N and west of 90W. Surface ridging covers the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT data indicates light to moderate SE wind across the eastern and central Gulf with the exception of an area of fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N-25N between 86W-90W. A strong cold front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tue afternoon, then move across the SE Gulf by Wed afternoon. Northerly gale force winds and building seas will follow in behind the front mainly W of 94W tonight in the NW Gulf, spreading southward, and some possibly eastward, as strong gale force winds through Wed. Winds and seas will diminish over the central and western Gulf Thu through Fri. Strong northeast to east winds will continue over the Straits of Florida after the frontal passage Thu through Sat morning. Another cold front will move across the western Gulf on Sat and Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean, while upper-level ridging covers the southern portion of the basin. Upper-level diffluence between these upper-level features is enhancing scattered moderate convection from 15N-20N between 75W-87W, including the waters west of the Windward Islands to the Gulf of Honduras. The weather is quieter over the central and eastern basin, with isolated showers seen stretching from the northern Leeward Islands to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. A 1006 mb low pressure over Northern Colombia with Pacific monsoon trough continuing westward is enhancing scattered moderate isolated strong convection over Panama and Colombia. Strong gradient across the Caribbean is increasing easterly trades across the basin from the Windward Passage south to Colombia. ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere. Fresh to strong trades and building seas over the central and eastern Caribbean will continue through most of Wed as high pressure north of the area gradually shifts eastward. Winds will pulse to near gale on tonight near the coast of Colombia. A strong cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Wed, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wed night, then become stationary over the northwest Caribbean Thu into Thu night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish over the northwest Caribbean Fri and Fri night. Mixed north swell with east wind waves will maintain seas 8 ft or greater over the Tropical N Atlantic waters for the next several days before diminishing on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N47W to 28N60W, then stalls at that point to 26N74W. Isolated showers are along the front. A 1027 mb highs is centered near 32N64W and a 1025 mb high further east is centered near 28N48W, respectively. A weakening cold front emerges off the coast of Western Sahara near 20N16W to 19N29W to 27N44W. No significant convection accompanies the front. A 996 mb low pressure over the Iberian Peninsula is causing gale force winds in the Atlantic as far south as 32N off the coast of Morocco. Strong to near gale force NW winds extend off the coast of Morocco southward to the Canary Islands. These winds are expected to decrease during the next 6 to 12 hours. A stationary front extending from near 27N65W to 26N77W will weaken tonight, with the frontal remnants lifting north early on Wed. A strong cold front will move off the southeastern U.S. coast late Tue night, reach from near 31N74W to Miami, Florida Wed afternoon, then from near 28N65W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba on Thu afternoon, and become stationary from near 26N65W to east- central Cuba by Fri afternoon. Strong north to northeast winds and building seas are expected across much of the forecast waters following frontal passage as a tight gradient develops over the western part of the area as central Atlantic high pressure shifts eastward while low pressure tracks east- northeast from the Gulf of Mexico to across Florida. $$ Torres