000 AXNT20 KNHC 161759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1259 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The 12-hour forecast consists of: a cold front along 30N93W 26N97W. Expect N winds 20 to 30 knots, sea heights to 8 feet, and frequent gusts to gale-force, within 28N94W to 27N95W to 27N97W to 28N97W to 30N94W to 28N94W. The 24-hour forecast consists of: a cold front from 30N88W to 24.5N94W to 21N96W to 18N94W. Expect NW- to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, within 21N96W to 19N96W to 21N97W to 24N98W to 24N96W to 21N96W. NW TO N WINDS 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. The gale- force wind conditions are expected to continue until at least Wednesday morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ passes through the southernmost coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 05N08W, to 05N15W, 04N19W, 04N25W, to the Equator along 36W, and to the Equator along 44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 240 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 34W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south ITCZ between 07W and 26W. Isolated moderate to locally strong within 150 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 16W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Southerly return flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, in advance of the cold front that is going to bring the gale-force winds, from the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Broken to overcast middle level and high level clouds are covering the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong S return flow in the W Gulf will persist today. A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast by this evening, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tue afternoon, then move across the SE Gulf by Wed afternoon. N gales and building seas are expected W of the front mainly W of 94W, commencing tonight in the NW Gulf, spreading southward through Wed. Winds and seas will diminish in the central and western Gulf Thu through Fri. Strong NE to E winds will continue in the Straits of Florida after the frontal passage Thu through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from NW Cuba to the central coast of Honduras. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong, from 15N to 20N from the Windward Passage westward, in trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds, and building seas E of 80W, will persist through mid-week as the Bermuda High builds N of the area. Winds will pulse to near gale on tonight near the coast of Colombia. A strong cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Wed, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wed night, then stall and weaken in the NW Caribbean Thu into Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish gradually in the NW Caribbean Fri and Fri night. Mixed N swell and E wind waves will maintain seas 8 ft or greater in the Tropical N Atlantic waters for the next several days, before diminishing on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N54W, to 30N60W, 25N70W, and close to the Bahamas near 24N73W. Precipitation: significant deep convective precipitation covers the area from 32N northward between 40W and 50W. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the cold front from 24N to 32N. A cold front passes through 32N09W, along the coast of Morocco and the Western Sahara, to 24N20W, 22N30W, 25N40W, and 30N46W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm in front of the cold front, between 30W and 45W. The current cold front that reaches the SE Bahamas will stall and weaken today across the northern waters. A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S.A. coast on Tuesday night. The front will extend from near 31N74W to the S Florida peninsula on Wed afternoon. The front will extend from 28N65W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba on Thu afternoon, and finally stalling in the S Bahamas on Fri afternoon. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected across much of the region following the frontal passage. $$ MT