000 AXNT20 KNHC 161001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 501 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday night. Gale-force northerly winds are forecast to occur behind the front along the coast near Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Guinea near 08N13W to 04N24W to 05N36W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N-06N between 16W-27W, and along the ITCZ from 00N-06N between 34W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... Generally quiet weather conditions exist across the Gulf of Mexico supported by a surface ridge that extends across the basin from a 1025 mb high pressure in the west Atlantic. Surface winds are generally out of the southeast and south over much of the region, and are moderate to fresh over the northern and western Gulf waters. Fresh to strong S return flow over W Gulf will persist today. A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tue afternoon, then move across the SE Gulf by Wed afternoon. N gales and building seas are expected west of the front near the coast of Mexico Tue through Wed. Winds and seas will diminish over the central and western Gulf Thu through Fri. Strong NE to E winds will continue over the Straits of Florida after the frontal passage Thu through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers persist during the past several hours over Hispaniola and adjacent waters, related to a surface trough that extends from 21N72W to 14N74W. An upper trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms west of 82W to across the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, generally fair weather persists across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N13W to 23N73W. Scattered showers are seen 60 nm southeast of the cold front. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front across the far west Atlantic with a 1025 mb high pressure. To the east, another cold front enters the area near 31N15W to 24N30W to 30N45W. Strong northwesterly winds and scattered showers exist behind this boundary. Elsewhere, high pressure is supporting generally fair weather conditions. The cold front will stall and weaken overnight into Mon across the northern waters. A stronger cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Tue night, then extend from near 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to western Cuba on Wed night. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected across much of the region following frontal passage. The front will cross the southern Bahamas on Thu, then stall over the central waters Thu night through Fri night. $$ MMT