000 AXNT20 KNHC 152321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by Monday night. Gale-force northerly winds are forecast to occur behind the front along the coast near Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico, on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Sierra Leone near 06N10W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 00N-14N between 24W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Generally quiet weather conditions exist across the Gulf of Mexico supported by a surface ridge that extends across the basin from a west Atlantic. Surface winds are generally out of the southeast and south over much of the region, and are strongest over the western waters. Fresh to strong southerly return flow over the western Gulf will persist through Mon. A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Mon night, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then move across the SE Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly winds and rough seas are expected west of the front near the coast of Mexico Tue through Wed. Winds and seas will diminish over the central and western Gulf Thu through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Shower activity has persisted during the past several hours over Hispaniola and adjacent waters, related to a surface trough that extends from 23N71W to 15N71W. Otherwise, generally fair weather persists across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Fresh to strong trades and building seas will develop east of 80W tonight and persist through mid week as high pressure builds north of the area. A strong cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Wed, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wed night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean Thu into Thu night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish over the NW Caribbean on Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N64W to 26N73W, then becomes stationary from that point to 24N78W. Scattered showers prevail along the cold front. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front across the far west Atlantic. To the east, another cold front enters the area near 31N21W to 28N30W to 30N42W. Strong northwesterly winds and scattered showers exist behind this boundary. Elsewhere, high pressure is supporting generally fair weather conditions. The cold front over the west Atlantic will weaken tonight into Mon as it quickly passes E across the northern waters. A stronger cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Tue night, then extend from near 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to central Cuba on Wed night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected across much of the region following frontal passage. The front will cross the southern Bahamas on Thu, then stall over the central waters Thu night through Fri. $$ ERA