000 AXNT20 KNHC 151115 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 615 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 05N33W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 165 nm of the ITCZ between 18W-44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 09S-05N E of 18W to the coast of Africa near 05W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 15/0900 UTC, the stalled front across the southern Gulf has began to dissipate. High pressure continues to build across the area anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N83W. Meanwhile, a warm front is noted across the northeast Gulf from 29N84W to the southern Louisiana coast near 29N90W. This warm front is expected to move farther inland today. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh southerly winds in the NW Gulf off the SE Texas coast, calm to light winds in the eastern Gulf, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf on Sunday and persist through early Monday. A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Monday night, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tuesday, then move across the SE Gulf on Wednesday. Gale force northerly winds are expected west of the front near the coast of Mexico Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds and seas will diminish over the central Gulf Thursday and Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging continues to sit over most of the Caribbean. Meanwhile, mid-level troughing extends from the western Atlantic to the west-central Caribbean as the the mid-level ridge retreats to the central Atlantic. A trough is analyzed from the central Caribbean to the southern Bahamas, from 16N24W to 24N73W. Scattered moderate convection continues to occur south of the Dominican Republic and western Puerto Rico from 16N-19N between 67W- 70W. The rest of Puerto Rico and the USVI are also seeing scattered showers across the region. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades north of Colombia with gentle to moderate trades across the central and western Caribbean. Fresh trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate easterly winds will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sunday. Winds and seas will increase east of 80W Sunday night through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. A strong cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel Wednesday, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wednesday night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean Thursday and Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 15/0900 UTC, a cold front extends into the western Atlantic near 31N70W to the northern Bahamas near 25N78W, then stalls from that point to north-central Cuba near 23N81W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 26N72W to 30N67W. Showers are seen ahead of the cold front, mostly N of 27N. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the pre-frontal trough from 27N-81N between 65W-71W. A trough extends across the central Atlantic, with a surface trough analyzed from 22N49W to 26N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the surface trough from 20N-25N between 46W-52W. A cold front has entered the central Atlantic, stretching from 31N28W to 31N43W. An upper level trough continues to slide eastward toward NE Africa. This is producing scattered showers over Western Sahara, Morocco, and the Canary Islands from 23N-31N between 11W- 21W. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force winds behind the cold front, mostly N of 29N between 75W-78W. Moderate to fresh winds are seen ahead of the front. The cold front will quickly pass eastward across the northern waters through Sunday, with strong southerly flow persisting ahead of the front N of 28N. The front will stall and weaken east of the area Sunday night and Monday. A stronger cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Tuesday night, and extend from near 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to central Cuba on Wednesday night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected across much of the region following frontal passage. The front will cross the southern Bahamas on Thursday, then stall over the central waters on Thursday night. Farther east, Meteo France is noting westerly near gale force winds can be expected near Agadir over the next day. $$ AKR