000 AXNT20 KNHC 150543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1243 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 04N33W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 200 nm of the ITCZ between 17W-40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 01S-04N E of 17W to the coast of Africa near 07W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 25N80W to the SE Gulf near 24N83W, then stalls from 24N83W to north of the Yucatan near 21N89W. Showers are seen along this boundary. Surface ridging extends over most of the basin anchored by a 1015 mb high near 28N88W. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds in the NW Gulf off the SE Texas coast with calm to light winds elsewhere. The cold front will move SE of the Gulf overnight. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the western Gulf on Sunday and persist through early Monday. A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Monday night, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday, then move across the SE Gulf by Wednesday. Gale force northerly winds are expected west of the front near the coast of Mexico on Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds and seas will diminish over the central Gulf by Thursday and Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level ridging continues to sit over most of the Caribbean. Meanwhile, mid-level troughing extends from the western Atlantic to the Windward Passage, which is helping the mid-level ridge to retreat to the central Atlantic. This is giving way to scattered moderate convection is seen over the eastern Dominican Republic from 17N- 20N between 67W- 71W. Puerto Rico and the USVI are also seeing scattered showers across the region. A surface trough is analyzed from 12N78W to 18N78W with no significant convection associated with it. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades north of Colombia with gentle to moderate trades across the central and western Caribbean. Fresh trades are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate easterly winds will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sunday. Winds and seas will increase east of 80W Sunday night through early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. A strong cold front will cross the Yucatan Channel by Wednesday, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Wednesday night, then stall and weaken over the NW Caribbean Thursday and Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 15/0300 UTC, a cold front extends into the forecast waters near 31N73W southwest to the Florida Keys near 25N80W. Two lines of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the front: one from 27N-31N between 70W-75W, and the other from 26N-31N between 66W-73W. A surface trough is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 22N49W to 27N48W with scattered moderate convection noted near this feature from 22N-25N between 46W-50W. An upper level trough continues to slide eastward toward NE Africa. This is producing scattered showers over Western Sahara, Morocco, and the Canary Islands from 23N-31N between 11W-22W. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong to near gale force winds behind the cold front, mostly N of 29N between 75W-78W. Moderate to fresh winds are seen ahead of the front. The cold front will quickly pass eastward across the northern waters through Sunday, with strong southerly flow persisting ahead of the front N of 28N. The front will stall and weaken east of the area Sunday night and Monday. A stronger cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday night, and extend from near 31N70W across the NW Bahamas to central Cuba on Wednesday night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected across much of the region following frontal passage. The front will cross the southern Bahamas on Thursday, then stall over the central waters on Thursday night. Farther east, Meteo France is noting westerly near gale force winds can be expected near Agadir over the next day. $$ AKR