000
AXNT20 KNHC 142316
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 06N11W to 06N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 00N-09N between 20W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the southeast Gulf from 25N81W to 
22N89W. Scattered showers prevail along the front. Surface ridge 
is building across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1015 
mb high centered near 24N93W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate 
to fresh winds across the eastern Gulf mainly north of the front, 
while light to gentle winds prevails elsewhere.

The cold front will continue to move SE of the area tonight. 
Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the 
western Gulf on Sun and persist through early Mon. A strong cold 
front will move off the Texas coast Mon night, extend from the 
Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then move across the
SE Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly winds are expected west of 
the front near the coast of Mexico Tue through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from 20N76W to
11N76W. Scattered showers are noted over the northern Caribbean
mainly north of 17N between 69W-78W. Another surface trough is
noted in scatterometer data over the southwestern waters from
15N82W to 11N82W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the
trough. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over
the eastern half of the basin, while light winds prevail over the
western half. 

Moderate easterly winds will prevail across the central and 
eastern Caribbean through Sun. Winds and seas will increase east 
of 80W Sun night through early next week as high pressure builds 
north of the area. A strong cold front will reach the Yucatan 
Channel Wed afternoon, extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of 
Honduras Wed night, then stall and weaken over the northern 
Caribbean on Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic, from 31N78W to
27N80W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along and within
330 nm east of the front. This convection is being enhanced by 
upper-level diffluence. To the east, surface ridging prevails
across the basin, anchored by a 1038 mb high centered near 44N50W.  
In the upper levels, an upper-level trough is over the eastern 
Atlantic, and is producing scattered showers from 15N-25N between
22W-48W.

The cold front will quickly pass eastward across the northern 
waters, with strong southerly flow prevailing ahead of the front 
and N of 28N through Sun. The front will stall and weaken east of
the area Sun night and Mon. A stronger cold front will move off 
the southeast U.S. coast Tue night, extend from 31N70W across the 
Bahamas to central Cuba on Wed night, then cross the southern 
Bahamas on Thu. Strong northerly winds and building seas are 
expected across much of the region following frontal passage.

$$

ERA