000 AXNT20 KNHC 141723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1223 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200Z UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 07N12W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 04N30W to N Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 22W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 31W-37W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 41W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N82W to the NE Gulf near 28N85W to the north central Gulf near 26N91W. Radar imagery shows scattered moderate convection within 70 nm E of the front. High pressure is building in the W Gulf in the wake of the front. In the upper levels a large upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 86W, supporting the cold front. The cold front will shift E across the NE Gulf today. Southerly winds will develop over the western Gulf on Sun. A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Mon night, extend from the Florida Panhandle to Bay of Campeche Tue, then move across the SE Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly winds are expected west of the front near the coast of Mexico Tue and Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from the Windward Passage near 19N74W to N Colombia near 10N75W. Scattered showers are over the Leeward and Windward Islands. More scattered showers are over the north central Caribbean N of 15N between 65W-80W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with strong subsidence. Moderate easterly winds will prevail across the region through Sun, except for the western Caribbean, where winds will be light to gentle. Winds and seas will increase Mon and Tue east of 75W as high pressure builds north of the area. A strong cold front will reach the Yucatan channel Wed afternoon, then extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW Atlantic N of 26N between 68W-77W, in southerly surface flow. This convection is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence. A 1026 mb high is over the NE Atlantic near 32N25W. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the eastern Atlantic, and is producing scattered showers from 13N-25N between 25W-46W. Strong S to SW winds N of 28N will veer to W as a cold front moves E across the northern waters through Sun. The front will stall and weaken east of the area Sun night and Mon. A stronger cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Tue night, then extend from 31N70W across the Bahamas to central Cuba on Wed night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected NW of this front. $$ Zachry