000
AXNT20 KNHC 141048
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
548 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 09N13W to 07N16W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 03N40W to N Brazil near 00N48W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 22W-30W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 31W-37W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 41W-47W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from N Florida near 31N83W to the NE Gulf
near 28N87W to the north central Gulf near 27N91W. Scattered 
moderate convection is over N Florida and the NE Gulf N of 27N 
between 81W-85W. A 1015 mb high is centered over the W Gulf near 
23N96W producing fair weather. In the upper levels a large upper 
level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 88W, supporting the 
cold front. 

The cold front in the NE Gulf will shift eastward today. 
Southerly winds will develop in the western Gulf on Sun. A strong
cold front will move off the Texas coast Mon night, extend from 
the Florida Panhandle to Bay of Campeche Tue, then move across the
SE Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly winds are expected west of 
the front near the coast of Mexico Tue and Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is over the central Caribbean from the Windward 
Passage near 20N74W to N Colombia near 09N74W. Scattered showers 
are over the Leeward and Windward Islands. More scattered showers
are over the north central Caribbean N of 15N between 65W-80W. In
the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with strong 
subsidence. 

Moderate easterly winds will prevail across the region through 
Sun. Winds and seas will increase Mon and Tue east of 75W as high 
pressure builds north of the area. A strong cold front will reach 
the Yucatan channel Wed afternoon, and extend from western Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras Wed night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW
Atlantic N of 26N between 72W-77W, in southerly surface flow. 
This convection is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence. 
A surface trough is NE of the Leeward Islands from 24N54W to 
18N56W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the trough axis. A 
1026 mb high is over the NE Atlantic near 34N23W. Of note in the 
upper levels, an upper level trough is over the eastern Atlantic, 
N of 20N between 35W-50W, producing scattered showers. 

Strong southerly winds will develop N of 28N today as a cold 
front moves eastward across NW Atlantic waters through Sun. The 
front will stall and weaken east of the area Sun night and Mon. A 
stronger cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast Tue 
night, and extend from 31N70W across the Bahamas to central Cuba 
on Wed night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are 
expected NW of the front.

$$
Formosa