914 AXNT20 KNHC 140521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1221 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 10N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 04N24W to 05N31W to N Brazil near 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 13W-24W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N-07N between 24W-36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-07N between 40W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0300 UTC...a 1007 mb low is centered near Tallahassee Florida to the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W to 26N93W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NE Gulf from 26N-31N between 84W-87W. A 1015 mb high is centered over the W Gulf near 23N96W producing fair weather. In the upper levels a large upper level trough is over the Gulf with axis along 88W, supporting the cold front. The surface low will track NE overnight and pull the cold front across the eastern Gulf through Sat. High pressure will shift eastward across northern Florida on Sun, supporting strengthening return flow over the western Gulf ahead of an approaching cold front. This strong front will move off the Texas coast on Mon, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche on Tue, then continue moving across the SE Gulf on Wed. Gale force northerly winds are expected west of the front near the coast of Mexico late Tue through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is over the E Caribbean from the Mona Passage near 18N68W to N Venezuela near 11N68W. Scattered showers are over the Leeward and Windward Islands. more scattered showers are over the north central Caribbean N of 15N between 65W-80W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with strong subsidence. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region tonight as high pressure over the western Atlantic shifts eastward. Trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase early next week. Fresh trades along with moderate NE swell are expected in Tropical N Atlantic waters this weekend through early next week. A cold front will pass over the NW Caribbean Wed and Wed night, producing strong NE winds and building seas over the Yucatan Basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the NW Atlantic N of 23N between 74W-79W, in southerly surface flow. This convection is also being enhanced by upper level diffluence. A surface trough is NE of the Leeward Islands from 24N54W to 18N56W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm of the trough axis. A 1029 mb high is over the NE Atlantic near 34N24W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the eastern Atlantic, N of 20N between 35W-50W, producing scattered showers. Strong to near gale force southerly winds will develop over the NW Atlantic overnight into Sat ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move eastward across the northern waters Sat through Sun, then stall and weaken over the NE portion Sun night into Mon. A stronger cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast and across the waters Tue night through Wed night, resulting in strong northerly winds and building seas. $$ Formosa