000 AXNT20 KNHC 131726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1226 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 07N11W to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either sides of the ITCZ between 16W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the basin from the Atlantic, reaching the basin near 30N84W to 29N89W to 23N93W. Upper-level diffluence prevails east of the front supporting cloudiness and scattered moderate convection, mainly east of 90W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds east of 90W, while light to moderate winds prevail west of 90W. The front will transition to a cold front this afternoon and quickly sweep across the southeastern Gulf through Sat, reaching the Straits of Florida Sat evening and to southeast of the area early Sun. High pressure behind the front will shift to just east of northeast Florida on Sun allowing for mainly fresh southerly winds to set up over the far western Gulf. These winds will shift eastward and diminish through Mon as the next cold front approaches the Texas coast. This front will move off the Texas coast Mon afternoon, reach from near Pensacola, Florida to 25N93W and to near Veracruz early Tue and from near Apalachicola, Florida to 24N89W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night. Gale force northerly winds are possible west of the front near the coast of Mexico. CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively dry air and fair weather prevails across the basin. A surface trough extends from 18N65W to 10N65W with scattered showers. This activity will affect Puerto Rico today. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds over the majority of the basin mainly east of 80W, while light to gentle winds prevail west of 80W. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the region today as high pressure in the Atlantic shifts eastward. Trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase early next week. Fresh trades along with moderate NE swell is expected in Tropical N Atlantic waters this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N68W to 28N78W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N46W to 18N49W. This trough is the reflection of an upper level low currently in this area. Scattered showers are noted along and within 120 nm east of the trough. Surface ridging prevail elsewhere. The stationary will weaken to a trough by tonight. Southerly winds will increase tonight and Sat ahead of a weak cold front expected to move east across the northern waters this weekend. A stronger cold front may move off the northeast Florida on Tue night. $$ ERA