000 AXNT20 KNHC 130551 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1251 AM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from 05N14W to 02N33W, and to the Equator along 42W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong are from 08N southward from 47W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front passes through Florida, from 27N80W on the eastern coast of the state, just to the south of Lake Okeechobee, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 25N93W, curving southward to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 24N northward from 93W eastward. A complex weather pattern exists in the Gulf of Mexico. Two weak areas of low pressure and two stationary fronts, are drapped from NE to SW. The lows and fronts will merge, from tonight into early Friday, shifting to the E of the basin during this weekend. High pressure, that is to the E of the area, will allow for southerly return flow to set up by the end of the weekend. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday night, moving across the basin through Tuesday night. Fresh to near gale force winds will follow the front, except gale force possible in the W central and SW Gulf on Tuesday and Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough passes through 22N63W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 14N66W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 63W/64W from 10N at the coast of Venezuela to 20N. Precipitation: Isolated moderate within 420 nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 500 nm to the west of the surface trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea on the western side of the trough, and elsewhere from 11N northward from 87W eastward. Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is within 45 nm of the southern coast of Panama, in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Satellite data and the GFS forecast for 250 mb show upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model forecasts for 500 mb and for 700 mb show NE wind flow in the same area. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 11N southward from 78W westward. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish across the region, gradually, through Friday afternoon, as high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean shifts eastward. The trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea will increase early next week. Fresh trade winds and moderate N to NE swell are expected in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean during the upcoming weekend, increasing early next week. Scattered to numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds, may impact the NE Caribbean Sea and the northern Tropical N Atlantic Ocean through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near Bermuda, to 31N69W, and beyond the Florida east coast along 27N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong to the N and NW of the line that passes through 32N62W, to 29N70W, and to 28N80W. An upper level trough extends from a 34N31W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 27N52W, to 22N63W, and eventually to 14N66W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 31N40W to 28N45W and 25N48W. 27N67W to 23N68W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 28N northward between 30W and 40W, and from 18N to 30N between 43W and 53W. A surface trough is along 20N46W 17N49W 12N51W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N to 20N between 30W and 54W. The current stationary front will weaken to a trough on Friday. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue N of the front through early Friday. Southerly winds will increase on Friday night and Saturday, in advance of a weak cold front that is expected to move W across the northern waters. It is possible that a stronger cold front may move into the NW part of the area, off NE Florida, on Tuesday night. $$ MT