000 AXNT20 KNHC 120525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1225 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front is along 28N82.5W 26N89W. The front becomes stationary from 26N89W to 17N94W. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 17 feet in N to NE swell, within 19N95W to 18N94W to 19N96W to 20N96W to 20N95W to 19N95W. This event is forecast to be ending during the next few hours. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... A cold front is along 31N75W 28N81W. Expect N-to-NE winds 20 to 30 knots within 29N77W to 29N81W to 31N81W to 31N76W to 29N77W. Frequent gusts to 35 knots are forecast N of 29.5N within 60 nm of the shore. The sea heights will range from 8 feet to 10 feet. This event is forecast to last for the next 24 hours or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST: MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, the latest OFFSHORE FORECAST: MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, everything from the NWS National Hurricane Center, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 07N20W 03N30W, crossing the Equator along 40W, to the coastal plains of Brazil near 02S45W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong are from 07N southward from 38W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... The cold front passes through Florida, about 60 nm to the north of Lake Okeechobee, into the central Gulf of Mexico. The front is stationary, from the central Gulf of Mexico, curving southward to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 17 feet in N to NE swell, within 19N95W to 18N94W to 19N96W to 20N96W to 20N95W to 19N95W. This event is forecast to be ending during the next few hours. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the east of the stationary front, from 17.5N to 20.5N, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and in the Yucatan Peninsula. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 75 nm to the south of the cold front between 84W and 88W. The current frontal boundary will stall out completely later tonight. The front will weaken, and move to the NW-N through Friday night, as low pressure forms in the W central Gulf of Mexico. This area of low pressure will move NE across the N central waters through early Saturday. The associated cold front will sweep across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Saturday night. The front will leave behind a dissipating boundary across the far SE Gulf on Sunday. High pressure will build southward across the central and E Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong southerly wind flow will set up in the western Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday. A second cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean near 24N65W to 16N64W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 660 nm to the east of the trough from 17N to 22N. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea on the eastern side of the trough, and elsewhere from 14N northward between 63W and 84W. Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is in the eastern Pacific Ocean, from 60 nm to 120 nm to the south of Panama. Satellite data and the GFS forecast for 250 mb show upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model forecasts for 500 mb and for 700 mb show NE wind flow in the same area. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong from 11N southward from 80W westward. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish across the region, gradually, through Friday, as high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean shifts eastward. The trade winds will increase again in the central Caribbean Sea early next week, as the surface pressure gradient tightens. Moderate to fresh trade winds, and moderate N to NE swell, are expected in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 32N73W, to the Florida east coast along 28N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to the NW of the line that passes through 32N70W to the Florida east coast along 25N. An upper level trough extends from a 33N35W cyclonic circulation center, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 29N48W, to a third cyclonic circulation center that is near 26N58W, 24N65W, and eventually to 16N64W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 67W/68W from 24N to 31N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the north of the line that passes through 31N24W 26N36W 23N55W 20N66W. Rainshowers are possible also from 64W westward. The upper level trough is along 24N65W to 16N64W. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 660 nm to the east of the trough from 17N to 22N. Comparatively drier air in subsidence covers the Caribbean Sea on the eastern side of the trough, and elsewhere from 14N northward between 63W and 84W. The current cold front will reach from 31N73W to West Palm Beach, Florida by late tonight. The front will reach from 31N70W to 28N76W, and stationary to West Palm Beach on Thursday. The front will weaken gradually through Friday. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected N of the front, from tonight through late Thursday night. Large seas are expected in the waters N and NE of the Bahamas through early on Friday. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop in the far N central waters beginning late on Friday night. These winds will expand eastward through Saturday night, in advance of the next cold front that is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S.A. coast on Saturday. The second front will move quickly across the waters N of 27N through Sunday night. Fresh to strong winds will move NE of the area on Sunday night. Return flow will develop early next week. $$ MT