000 AXNT20 KNHC 102354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 654 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... As of 10/2100 UTC, the cold front stretches across the Gulf from the Florida Panhandle near 30N87W to a 1012 mb low near 26N95W to the coast of Mexico near 22N97W. Behind the front, strong to gale force NW to N winds are expected tonight by 0000 UTC, S of 23N between 96W-92W. Seas will range between 8 to 11 ft. Expect this gale force event to be ongoing until 12/0000 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 100 nm of the monsoon trough between 14W-29W. GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section in regards to the developing gale event. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the front from 26N-29N between 92W-94W. Scattered showers are also seen in the eastern Gulf. Otherwise, ridging extends across the eastern Gulf. Latest scatterometer data depicts depict fresh to strong southerly winds in the Bay of Campeche, with gentle to moderate southerly winds in the northern Gulf ahead of the front. The cold front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday morning, then stall from Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche by Thursday morning. Gale force NW to N winds are expected west of the front along the coast of Mexico tonight through Wednesday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep ridging covers the Caribbean and is inhibiting deep convection. Showers are seen in the SW Caribbean S of 13N between 78W-84W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen moving offshore of Jamaica. Otherwise, low-topped showers are seen moving across the Lesser Antilles into Puerto Rico. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong trades north of Colombia, with fresh to strong trades throughout the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are seen in the NW Caribbean. Strong high pressure in the west-central Atlantic will dominate the region through Wed. Expect building seas and fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week. Winds and seas will gradually subside Thu and Fri as the high pressure N of the area shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N41W and extends westward to 30N57W with a trough extending from that point to 22N61W. Scattered showers are seen within 170 nm of the front. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen within 20-200 nm of the Leeward Islands. High pressure continues to dominate the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1043 mb high near 41N41W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across the central Atlantic. Strong high pressure in the west-central Atlantic will support a large area of fresh easterly winds to the east of the Bahamas through this evening. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Wednesday, extend from 30N70W to central Florida Thursday morning and stall thereafter before transitioning to a warm front on Friday. $$ AKR