000 AXNT20 KNHC 101755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front has moved over the NW Gulf as of 12 UTC this morning, entering the NW Gulf from NE Texas near 29N93W to 27N97W near Corpus Christi, Texas. Behind the front, strong to gale force NW to N winds are expected Tuesday night in the far western Gulf near the coast of Mexico, mainly south of 24N between 92W-97W. The gales will spread south to the waters offshore of Veracruz on Wednesday. Expect sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, within 21N96W to 22N98W to 27N97W to 30N94W to 27N94W to 21N96W. This gale- force wind event will be ongoing until Wednesday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 00N31W. The ITCZ continues from 00N31W to 00N41W. Scattered showers extend 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Early this morning, a cold front entered the NW Gulf and extends from 29N93W to 27N97W. Radar and satellite imagery show areas of scattered to moderate convection from the Florida Panhandle to Deep South Texas. ASCAT shows moderate to fresh SE winds west of 90W ahead of the front. A strong surface ridge over the Atlantic extends southwest into the eastern Gulf with light to moderate SE winds across the area. Near the coast of Mexico, a 1011 mb low pressure is centered near 23N97W with a trough extending south to the Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is noted along the trough. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf today, and extend from Crystal River, Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Wed morning. Gale force NW to N winds are expected west of the front along the coast of Mexico tonight through Wed evening. The front will stall from Tampa Bay to near 28N90W to the Bay of Campeche by Thu morning, and then gradually lift northward before transitioning to a cold front off the Florida Panhandle to 23N91W on Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers continue along the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, deep ridging continues to keep convection at a minimum. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong trades in the eastern half of the Caribbean with moderate trades in the western half. Strong high pressure in the west-central Atlantic will dominate the region through Wed. Expect building seas and fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean and Tropical N Atlantic waters through mid-week. Near gale force winds will be likely at night along the coast of Colombia during that period. Winds and seas will gradually subside Thu and Fri as the high pressure N of the area shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the forecast area from 31N38W to 29N51W. A trough extends from the tail end of the front to 20N63W. An upper level trough is along 23N60W, across the Virgin Islands, to 17N66W. This is enhancing scattered moderate convection along the boundary and the surface trough. High pressure continues to dominate the eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1044 mb high near 41N44W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across much of the basin. Strong high pressure in the west-central Atlantic will support a large area of fresh easterly winds to the east of the Bahamas through this evening. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Wed, extend from 30N70W to central Florida Thu morning and stall thereafter before transitioning to a warm front on Fri. Fresh to near gale force winds are expected behind the front Wed evening through early Fri. $$ Torres