000 AXNT20 KNHC 101104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 604 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front will move off the Texas coast and enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The 18-hour forecast position for the cold front is: 29N90W to 20N96.5W. Expect the N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, within 21N96W to 22N98W to 27N97W to 30N94W to 27N94W to 21N96W. This gale-force wind event will be ongoing until Wednesday night. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the OFFSHORE FORECAST, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, issued by the National Hurricane Center, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N20W to 01N28W. The ITCZ continues from 01N28W, to the Equator along 31W, and continuing along the Equator to 39W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 40W eastward, and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 28W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 28N80W, just off the eastern coast of Florida in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida, to the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico today, and extend from the Florida Big Bend into the SW Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday. Gale-force NW to N winds are expected to the west of the front along the coast of Mexico from tonight through Wednesday. The front will stall from the Florida Peninsula to the SW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday. The front will move northward, gradually, across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a warm front on Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is along 23N64W, across the Virgin Islands, to 15N67W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 15N to 23N between 63W and 67W. Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Satellite data and the GFS forecast for 250 mb show upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model forecasts for 500 mb and for 700 mb show NE wind flow across the same area. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 150 nm of the coast from 17N southward, from Honduras to Panama. Strong high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will dominate the region through Wednesday. Expect building sea heights and fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, and in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, through mid- week. The wind speeds and the sea heights will subside across the region gradually, on Thursday and Friday, as the high pressure area weakens and shifts eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N38W to 31N40W. The front becomes a dissipating stationary front from 31N40W to 27N50W 26N54W and 21N62W. A surface trough is within 60 nm to 120 nm to the NW of the cold front/stationary front, from 44W eastward. The surface continues along 31N between 44W and 60W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong between the frontal boundary and the surface trough between 49W and 55W, and within 180 nm to the NW of the dissipating stationary front between 59W and 62W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere between the frontal boundary and the surface trough from 64W eastward. An upper level trough is along 22N31W 18N33W 12N33W 08N36W. High level clouds are within 360 nm and beyond to the east of the trough. Strong high pressure in the west central Atlantic Ocean will support a large area of fresh easterly winds to the northeast of the Bahamas today. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S.A. coast on Wednesday, and then stall and weaken in the northern waters on Thursday and Friday. $$ MT