000 AXNT20 KNHC 100555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1255 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front will move off the Texas coast and enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The 24-hour forecast position for the cold front is: 29N90.5W 26N95W 21N97W. Expect the NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 11 feet, within 23N96W to 22N97W to 22N98W to 24N97W to 23N96W. This gale-force wind event will be ongoing until Wednesday night. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the OFFSHORE FORECAST, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, issued by the National Hurricane Center, or go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W, to 03N25W, crossing the Equator along 28W, to 02S40W, and to the coastal plains of Brazil near 03S44W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 40W eastward, and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 28W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 27N79W, just off the eastern coast of Florida in the Atlantic Ocean, across Florida, to the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to locally strong S return flow prevails across the W Gulf of Mexico, in advance of a strong cold front. The cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday. Gale-force NW to N winds are expected to the west of the front, along the coast of Mexico, from Tuesday night through Wednesday. The front will stall from the Florida Peninsula to the Bay of Campeche on Thursday. The front will move northward, gradually, across the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a warm front, on Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is along 26N63W 23N65W to the Mona Passage, to 15N67W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the trough. Broad surface low pressure covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Satellite data and the GFS forecast for 250 mb show upper level anticyclonic wind flow in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model forecasts for 500 mb and for 700 mb show NE wind flow across the same area. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coast from 16N southward, from Honduras to Costa Rica. A strong Bermuda High will dominate the SW North Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. The trade winds will increase to near gale- force just to the north of the coast of Colombia late tonight. Expect building sea heights and fresh to strong winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, and in the Tropical N Atlantic Ocean, through mid-week. The wind speeds and the sea heights gradually will subside across the region, as the Bermuda High weakens and shifts eastward, from Thursday through Friday ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N37W to 31N40W. The front becomes stationary from 31N40W to 27N50W 25N55W and 21N61W. A dissipating cold front is to the NW/NNW of the cold front/stationary front is within 120 nm to 240 nm, from 60W eastward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are between the two frontal boundaries. An upper level trough is along 21N30W 17N33W 10N35W. High level clouds are within 360 nm to the east of the trough, from 10N to 23N. The current stationary front will weaken later today. Fresh to strong easterly wind flow will persist, today, across the waters that are to the northeast of the Bahamas. A strong Bermuda High pressure center will be passing eastward across the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold front is expected to move off the SE United States coast on Wednesday. The cold front will stall and weaken in the N waters from Thursday into Friday. $$ MT