000 AXNT20 KNHC 090521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1221 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A cold front will move off Texas and enter the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Behind the front, gale force NW to N winds are expected Tuesday night in the far western Gulf near the coast of Mexico, mainly south of 24N. The gales will spread southward to the waters offshore of Veracruz for Wednesday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N15W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 00N30W to 00N43W to 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N-08N between 08W-15W, including over portions of Liberia. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb low is off the Mississippi coast near 30N88W with a warm front extending east of the low to Cedar Keys Florida near 29N83W. A dissipating stationary front extends south of the low to the central Gulf near 27N88W. A trough is also near this system, analyzed from 24N86W to 29N87W. Isolated showers are seen from 28N-31N between 85.5W-87W. The latest ASCAT pass from late Sunday evening shows fresh SE to S winds between the trough and the front from 27N-30.5N between 84W-87W. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will develop today in the W Gulf ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Tue, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon. Gale force NW to N winds are expected west of the front along the coast of Mexico Tue night and Wed. See special features section above for more details on the Gale Warning. The front will stall from N Florida to the SW Gulf Thu, and weaken through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate convection continues along the east coast of Nicaragua and waters from 09N-17N between 81W-84W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades north of Colombia and over portions of the south-central and southwest basin, with gentle to moderate trades throughout the rest of the basin. A weak Bermuda High is promoting generally moderate to fresh trades across the region through early today. Winds will strengthen and seas will build over the central and eastern Caribbean this afternoon through Wed night as a stronger Bermuda High dominates the SW North Atlantic. Conditions are likely to again become more quiescent on Thu, as the high moves well to the east of the waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends just off the Florida coast from 32N79W to Daytona Beach Florida. A cold front is sinking southward from 32N55W to 30N60W to 29N63W to 29N68W, continuing as stationary to 31N77W. Showers are seen along both of these features. A stationary front continues to be draped across the central Atlantic from 32N51W to a 1018 mb low near 27.5N55.5W to 20N67W, with scattered moderate convection seen from 26N-32N between 47W-54W. A trough is also seen in the central Atlantic from 18N60W to 24N59W. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1035 mb high near 36N24W. Fresh to strong easterly flow will remain in place through today across the waters northeast of the Bahamas as a strong Bermuda High passes eastward across the western Atlantic. A cold front is expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast Wed and Wed night, then stall and dissipate over the northern waters Thu into Thu night. $$ Hagen