000 AXNT20 KNHC 082312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 612 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 02N37W to 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the coast of Liberia extending offshore to about 280 nm, and additional activity is seen from 02N-07N between 17W-22W along the monsoon trough. North of the ITCZ, scattered showers are possible with broken to overcast mix of clouds west of 32W to the coast of Brazil. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb low is off the Mississippi coast near 30N89W with a stationary front extending east of the low to the Big Bend of Florida near 29N83W. A stationary front also extends south of the low to the central Gulf near 27N89W. A trough is also near this system, analyzed from 26N86W to the low. Showers are seen near these features but no organized convective activity is ongoing. The latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh south- southeasterly winds to the southeast of the low with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will develop Monday in the W Gulf ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Tuesday, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday afternoon. Gale force NW to N winds are possible west of the front along the coast of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. The front will stall from N Florida to the SW Gulf Thursday, and weaken through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layered ridging is present over the Caribbean. This is inhibiting most convection, with low-topped showers seen across the Lesser Antilles westward into Puerto Rico. Isolated convection is seen off the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama from 09N-15N between 80W-84W. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades north of Colombia with gentle to moderate trades throughout the rest of the basin. A weak Bermuda High is promoting generally moderate to fresh trades across the region through early Monday. Winds will strengthen and seas will build over the central and eastern Caribbean as well as the tropical N Atlantic Monday afternoon through Wednesday night as a stronger Bermuda High dominates the SW North Atlantic. Conditions are likely to again become more quiescent on Thursday, as the high moves well to the east of the waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two fronts are in the western Atlantic: a stationary front extends just off the Florida coast from 31N79W to 30N81W and a cold front is sinking southward from 31N63W to 31N76W. A surface trough is also to the east of the Bahamas from 26N74W to 29N76W. Showers are seen along each of these features. A stationary front continues to be draped across the central Atlantic from 31N54W to 21N68W with scattered moderate convection seen from 24N-31N between 48W-59W. A trough is also seen in the central Atlantic from 12N49W to 18N60W. High pressure dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N24W. Fresh to strong easterly flow will develop across the waters northeast of the Bahamas tonight through Monday as a strong Bermuda High passes eastward across the western Atlantic. A cold front is expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast Wednesday and Wednesday night, then stall and dissipate over the northern waters Thursday into Thursday night. $$ AKR