000 AXNT20 KNHC 081117 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 05N10W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N43W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N-06N between 05W-23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb low is located over the eastern Gulf near 28N87W. A stationary front extends from Cedar Keys Florida to the low to 26N90W to the coast of NE Mexico near 25N98W. A surface trough extends southward from the low to 22N87W. Another surface trough extends northwestward from the low to near Mobile Alabama. Isolated showers are possibly occurring near the low, troughs, and eastern portion of the stationary front over the NE Gulf of Mexico. The most recent ASCAT pass from Saturday night shows moderate winds in the NE Gulf with gentle wind speeds across much of the remainder of the basin. The weak stationary front extending from near the Florida Big Bend SW across the central Gulf will dissipate later today. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will develop Mon into Mon night ahead of a strong cold front. This cold front will push into the NW Gulf on Tue, then extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon. Gale force N winds are possible west of the front along the coast of Mexico Tue night and Wed. The front will likely stall across the Gulf and begin weakening Thu and Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging at 500 mb prevails across much of the Caribbean. Upper- level divergence that extends northward from the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean south of 16N between 80W-84W. Scattered showers and tstorms are also south of 10N between 75W-80W. Isolated to scattered showers and tstorms are also seen near and over Hispaniola, enhanced by moisture from the tail end of a stationary front that ends over the Atlantic near 21N67W. The latest ASCAT pass from Saturday evening shows fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh N-NE winds are seen off the east coast of Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, with similar winds also seen in the Windward Passage. Generally moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the region through early Mon. Winds will strengthen and seas will build over the central and eastern Caribbean Mon through Wed as a strong high pressure ridge dominates the SW North Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 08/0900 UTC, a stationary front is over the western Atlantic from 32N71W to Daytona Beach Florida. Isolated showers are near the front. A weak 1018 mb low is near 28N73W with a surface trough extending southward from the low to 24N72W. Isolated showers are from 26N-30N between 69W-74W. A stationary front extends from 32N51W to 29N54W to 26N61W to 21N67W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the stationary front, north of 25N and east of 61W. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under surface high pressure ridging, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 36N26W. The stationary front over the far northern waters will lift northward as a warm front later today. Fresh to strong easterly flow will develop across the waters northeast of the Bahamas tonight through Mon as strong high pressure passes eastward across the western Atlantic. A strong cold front is expected to move off the southeast U.S. coast Wed and Wed night, then stall over the northern waters Thu into Thu night. $$ Hagen