000 AXNT20 KNHC 071802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 00N-07N between 13W- 30W. Scattered shower activity is also seen about 180 nm SW of the coast of Liberia. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans Mexico. A cold front extends from a 1019 mb low pressure center near 29N84W to 22N97W near Victoria, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are possible along the boundary. Ridge builds behind it with a light to moderate NW flow as of the latest ASCAT imagery. The weak cold front across the Gulf is promoting benign marine conditions through the remainder of this weekend. A strong cold front will push into the NW Gulf on Tue morning, then extend from the Florida peninsula into the Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon. Minimal gale force N winds are possible west of the front along the coast of Mexico Tue night and Wed morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of convergence in the SW Caribbean Sea along the coast Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica is allowing for scattered moderate isolated strong convection to develop from 09N-16N between 81W-84W. Scattered showers are also seen near the coast of Panama. Latest ASCAT indicates moderate easterly trades across the east and central Caribbean while a N to NE moderate to fresh wind is present west of 77W to 84W. Plenty of drier air is noticeable in water vapor imagery across the eastern Caribbean. A weak Bermuda High to the north of the area is promoting generally moderate to fresh trade winds until early Mon. As a stronger Bermuda High builds in Mon through Wed, winds and seas will increase over the central and eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N47W to 26N59W to 25N66W. The front becomes dissipating stationary front from 25N66W to 26N74W, then a surface trough curves NW to a 1018 mb low near 30N76W. A surface trough ahead of the front extends from the SE Bahamas NE to 25N63W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 24N-31N between 51W-64W. Elsewhere across the basin, broad 1031 mb ridge is centered near 35N26W remaining in control of the region. ASCAT shows moderate to fresh E to NE flow across the area N of 13N. $$ Torres