000 AXNT20 KNHC 071123 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 07N11W to 04N17W, and 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N26W to 01N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 31W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 23W eastward. Rainshowers are possible also from the ITCZ to 12N between 31W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans Mexico. Upper level NW-to-W wind flow is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from a 1019 mb 30N88W low pressure center, to the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 23.5W. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds and possible rainshowers are within 60 nm to 75 nm on either side of the cold front. Benign marine conditions will prevail across the basin this weekend. A strong cold front will push into the NW Gulf of on Tuesday, and then extend from northern Florida into the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday afternoon. Minimal gale-force northerly winds are possible, to the west of the front, along the coast of Mexico, on Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Precipitation: Isolated moderate is from 17N southward between 80W and 85W, including in the coastal plains from Honduras to Panama. The precipitation has been related to wind speed convergence that is present in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow, with a ridge, is on top of the area of precipitation. Fresh trade winds will persist across most of the region through Sunday night. Strong high pressure, building to the north of the area, will allow the winds and the seas to increase early next week in the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N50W to 28N60W to 26N67W. The front becomes a dissipating stationary front from 26N67W to 26N72W and 27N76W. A surface trough is along 28N54W 24N64W, to northern Haiti. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N to 30N between 45W and 60W, and from 20N and the coastal waters of the Dominican Republic to 27N between 60W and 73W. Strong high pressure will build southward across the central Atlantic Ocean, to the northeast of the Bahamas, on Sunday and Monday. The resultant tight pressure gradient will bring increasing winds and building seas to the northern waters, from Sunday evening through Monday night. A cold front will move off the southeast U.S.A. coast on Wednesday. $$ MT