015 AXNT20 KNHC 061814 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 114 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues from 02N24W to 02N34W to 01N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough from 00N-07N between the coast of Sierra Leone and Libera between 08W-22W and a scattered shower activity present in the vicinity of the ITCZ. West of 40W, plenty of drier air is evident in the mid and low levels in the latest water vapor imagery with little to no convection. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb ridge is centered near 33N80W and extends from the western Atlantic west into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. No significant convection is seen over the basin with light to moderate SE wind across the Central Gulf. Scattered showers are starting to develop over central Gulf 25N-26N between 80W-90W. Weak low pressure will form south of Mobile along a cold front that will move into the northern Gulf this afternoon. The front will become stationary Fri night, with the low weakening to a trough on Sun. A stronger cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Tue followed by strong north to northeast winds and building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Windward Passage to 19N74W, then continues as a shear line from that point to the SW Caribbean Sea. Most of the convection along the stationary front and the shear line have diminished with the exception of more activity scattered moderate isolated strong convection concentrated south of 13N between 80w-83W along the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Isolated moderate convection is seen over parts of Jamaica. Fresh northeast to east trades will remain across most of the region through Sun night, except for fresh to strong winds along and near the coast of Colombia. Strong high pressure building north of the area will allow for winds and seas to increase early next week over much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Long- period northeast to east swell will begin to propagate through the Tropical N Atlantic waters Sun through Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N59W to 26N70W and curves NW to 28N79W. ahead of this front, a stationary front extends from 31N53W southwest to the NE Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 200 nm to the SE of the cold front from 23N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either side of the stationary front from 20N to 23N. A stationary front will gradually weaken through Sat night. The cold front behind it will quickly move southeast and merge with the northern part of the stationary front east of the area by early Sat evening. The western part of the cold front will be left behind as a trough over the northwest waters Sat night into early Sun. The trough will move back to the west-northwest from Sun afternoon through Mon as strong high pressure builds southward across the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas. The resultant tight gradient will bring increasing winds along with building seas over these same waters from about Sun afternoon through at least Mon evening. These conditions are expected to begin to diminish thereafter into Wed as the next cold front is expected to move into the far northwest waters late Tue night, and reach from near 31N72W to near west-central Cuba by late on Wed. Strong north to northeast winds will follow behind this front. $$ Torres