000 AXNT20 KNHC 052324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 624 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N11W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 03N35W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 01N-07N between 20W-35W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted south of the monsoon trough off the Liberian coast from 03S-05N and E of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed in the western Gulf of Mexico from 24N97W to 26N91W with showers seen within 90 nm of this feature. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the basin anchored by a 1021 mb high near 31N86W. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds across the western Gulf with light winds in the eastern basin. High pressure over the northeast Gulf will shift east of the area today in response to a cold front that will move off the Texas coast early Friday. Weak low pressure will form along the front over the northern Gulf Friday and shift northeast of the area into Sunday, allowing the front to stall and weaken over the western Gulf. A ridge of high pressure will build across the central Gulf Monday, before shifting east of the area late Monday ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the Texas coast early Tuesday and reach from the NE Gulf to the western Gulf by late Tuesday. This front will be followed by strong northerly winds, possibly reaching to gale force, over portions of the far western and SW Gulf Tuesday and Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line is stretched from the SW Caribbean to the Windward Passage, from 11N82W to 19N97W. Isolated thunderstorms are seen across the Windward Passage. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, from 10N-13N between 79W- 84W. Showers and thunderstorms are also seen moving from the Mona Passage into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Upper level ridging covers the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection from firing off. Latest scatterometer data depicts strong northerly winds S of 16N and E of 79W. Fresh to strong trades are also north of Colombia, gentle to moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean, with light to gentle winds in the NW basin. High pressure building north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the region through early next week, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia. Long- period northeast to east swell will begin to propagate through the Tropical N Atlantic waters Saturday night and into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is draped across the central and western Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N56W and stretches southwestward to northern Haiti near 20N73W. A line of scattered moderate convection is along this front from 21N-31N between 54W-67W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen right along the cold front from 21N-24N between 65W-71W. Meanwhile, a cold front is dropping into the western Atlantic from 31N74W to 31N81W with light showers along the boundary. A trough is noted from 24N74W to 30N63W. Farther east toward Africa, a 1008 mb low is off the Moroccan coast near 30N11W with a cold front extending south and west from the low to 22N20W to 28N31W. Showers with isolated thunderstorms are near the low, moving across the Canary Islands and into Morocco and Western Sahara. The cold front will move eastward tonight, then become stationary by early Friday and gradually dissipate through Saturday. A secondary cold front is moving across the far northwest waters. The front will quickly move across the northern waters through Friday and to east of the area by late Friday night. Another cold front will move across the northwest waters Friday night and Saturday. This front will weaken to a stationary front late on Saturday and to a trough on Sunday that will retrograde westward through Sunday night as strong high pressure builds southward across the waters northeast and east of the Bahamas. The associated tight gradient will bring increasing winds along with building seas over these same waters beginning late on Sunday. These conditions are expected to begin to diminish from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. $$ AKR