000 AXNT20 KNHC 051149 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 649 AM EST Thu Dec 5 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03N30W and to 02N36W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is within 270 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 18W and 35W, and to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 24W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, along 94W/95W from 23N southward. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are within 150 nm to the east of the trough, and within 100 nm to the west of the trough, and from 23N to 25N between 92W and 96W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, away from the areas of cyclonic wind flow that are associated with the SW Gulf of Mexico surface trough. High pressure in the central and NE Gulf of Mexico will shift to the east of the area today. A cold front will follow, moving off the Texas coast early on Friday. It is possible that weak low pressure may form along the front in the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and shift northeast of the area into Sunday, allowing the front to stall and weaken in the western Gulf of Mexico. A ridge will build across the central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The area of high pressure will shift to the east of the area late on Monday, in advance of a stronger cold front, that is expected to move off the Texas coast on Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front passes through the Windward Passage, to the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, to central Belize. Upper level dry air in subsidence is apparent in the water vapor satellite imagery, from SE Cuba/the Windward Passage toward the Gulf of Honduras, and encompassing the area that stretches from Guatemala to Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate from the eastern coastal waters of Jamaica, in the Mona Passage, and near the Turks and Caicos Islands and Great Inagua. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from Jamaica southward between 75W and Central America. The comparatively strongest precipitation currently is along the coast of Panama between 78W and 80W from 10N southward. The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough that passes through Guadeloupe to 14N70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate between 60W and 70W. High pressure, building to the north of the area, will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the region through early next week. Expect fresh to strong winds to be pulsing off the coast of Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front curves through 32N51W to 30N60W, to 26N65W, and to 21N70W. The front becomes dissipating stationary from 21N70W, through the Windward Passage into the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong within 270 nm to the east of the front from 21N northward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N northward between 48W and 60W. A cold front, that ranges from 200 nm to 270 nm to the NW of the stationary front, passes through the waters that are about 45 nm to the east of Bermuda, to 30N66W, to 26N70W, and to the Bahamas near 24N76W near the Exuma Cays. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front extends from a 1005 mb low pressure center that is near 31N11W, brushing the coasts of Morocco and the Western Sahara, to 26N21W, and to 29N31W. Precipitation: No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent. The current Bermuda-to-central Bahamas cold front will move southeastward, and it will merge with the stationary front that is just to the east of it. The merged front will continue to move to the east of the area tonight. A stationary front will be left behind, through the southern Bahamas, into Saturday. Another front will move off the Carolinas, from late Saturday into Sunday, and shift eastward. It is possible that this front may stay to the north of the area. Strong high pressure will follow the front into the northwest Atlantic Ocean. Expect fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas between the Bahamas and Bermuda by late Sunday. These winds will diminish early next week as the high pressure shifts eastward. $$ MT