000 AXNT20 KNHC 041659 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1159 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N30W to 03N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 390 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 25W-43W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure ridging covers most of the Gulf, anchored by a 1017 mb high near 24N93W. A weak surface trough is in the SW Gulf near the coast of Mexico from 19N96W to 23N98W. No significant convection is seen over the basin. High pressure will persist over the western and central Gulf through late this afternoon, then shift east of the area Thu ahead of the next cold front entering the northwest Gulf on Fri. Weak low pressure may form along the frontal boundary late Fri into Sat over the north central Gulf, then lift north of the area through Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 04/1500 UTC, a cold front passes from the N coast of the Dominican Republic near 20N70.5W to 17N77W to the NE coast of Honduras near 16N84W, continuing as a stationary front to central Guatemala near 16N90W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along and within 240 nm ahead of the front, including over the waters south of Hispaniola and SW of Jamaica. Surface ridging and drier air are moving into the NW Caribbean behind the front. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate convection south of 11N and west of 79W. The cold front will become stationary early this afternoon and dissipate tonight. High pressure currently across the Gulf of Mexico will slide east-northeastward and build north of the area Thu night and Fri, with the associated pressure gradient increasing the trades. Northwest to north swell will continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Atlantic passages through the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A forming reinforcing cold front enters the area from 32N73W and extends to 28.5N78W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front. Strong W-NW winds are behind the front. Plenty of cloud cover is ahead of the front, but there is no evidence of any significant showers. A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 32N52W to 26N60W to 24N65W to 21N70W to central Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 47W-54W. Isolated moderate convection is along and ahead of the front from 19N-25N between 60W-69W. Farther E, a cold front extends from 32N19W to 30N25W to 30N31W. ASCAT shows fresh N to NE winds within 90 nm N of the front. The cold front from 24N65W to central Hispaniola will become stationary early this afternoon, then gradually dissipate through Thu afternoon. The reinforcing cold front will sweep eastward across the waters north of 27N tonight through early Thu, followed by weak high pressure moving off the Carolinas north of the area. Yet another cold front will move into the region from the north, reaching as far south as 27N by Sat night and becoming stationary through Sun night. Strong high pressure will build southward Sun, resulting in strong northeast to east winds and building seas. $$ Hagen