000
AXNT20 KNHC 041142
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
642 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1120 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W
to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 04N30W and 01N44W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300
nm to the north of the ITCZ between 26W and 44W. Isolated 
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the south of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ from 18W eastward. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is passing through the southern half of Belize,
across northern parts of Honduras, into the eastern half of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec, into the SW Gulf of Mexico. The front
becomes stationary, and it continues to a 1015 mb low pressure 
center that is near 20N95W. The stationary front continues from 
the low pressure center to 21N99W. No significant deep convective 
precipitation is apparent.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 25N91W.

High pressure will persist in the western and central Gulf of
Mexico through late today. The high pressure center will shift to
the east of the area on Thursday. The next cold front is forecast
to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday. It is possible that 
weak low pressure may form along the frontal boundary, from late 
Friday into Saturday, in the north central Gulf of Mexico, and
then move northward, out of the area, through Sunday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
A cold front passes across the SE Bahamas, from the Turks and
Caicos Islands toward Great Inagua, across SE Cuba/parts of the
Windward Passage, to 18N80W. The cold front continues from 
18N80W, beyond the southern parts of Belize. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to the SE of
the cold front, from the east central coast of Nicaragua, to 150
nm to the south of Jamaica, to the SE coastal waters of the
Dominican Republic, to 21N68W within 150 nm to the north of the
Mona Passage.

The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough
that extends from 16N80W into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
12N between 79W and 82W, and the precipitation that is within 150
nm to the south of Jamaica.

The current cold front is starting to stall from eastern Cuba 
southwestward to the Gulf of Honduras. The current front is
forecast to dissipate through tonight. High pressure, currently 
across the Gulf of Mexico, will slide E-NE and build to the north
of the area late on Thursday and Friday. The associated pressure 
gradient will be increasing the trade winds. Large north swell, 
that has been impacting the Atlantic Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean
passages during the past few days, will continue to subside slowly
through today. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front extends from 32N56W, to 26N65W, beyond 21N72W in
the SE Bahamas near the Turks and Caicos. Precipitation: 
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 100 nm to
300 nm to the east of the cold front from 26N northward, and
within 350 nm to 450 nm to the east of the cold front from 20N to
23N. Isolated moderate elsewhere within 500 nm to the E and SE of
the cold front from 26N southward. 

A cold front passes through 32N24W to 31N30W. A stationary front
continues from 31N30W, passing beyond 32N39W. No significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent.

The current 32N56W-to-SE Cuba cold front will start to become 
stationary this morning, and then dissipate gradually through
Thursday. A reinforcing cold front will sweep eastward across the
waters, to the north of 27N, from tonight through early Thursday.
The reinforcing cold front will be followed by weak high 
pressure, that will be moving off the Carolinas north of the area.
A third another cold front will move into the region from the 
north, reaching as far south as 27N by Saturday night, and become 
stationary through Sunday night. Strong high pressure will build 
southward on Sunday, resulting in strong northeast to east winds 
and building seas. 

$$
MT