000
AXNT20 KNHC 040511
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1211 AM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0450 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 05N30W, crossing the
Equator along 46W, to the coast of Brazil along 48W from the
Equator to 01S. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong within 120 nm to 300 nm of the ITCZ
between 20W and 43W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front passes through the SE part of the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, to a SW Gulf of Mexico 1015 mb low pressure center that 
is near 19.5N95.5W. The stationary front continues from the low
pressure center to 21N99W. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A 1015 mb high pressure center is near 24N92W.

High pressure will persist in the western and central Gulf of
Mexico through Wednesday. The high pressure center will shift to
the east of the area on Thursday. The next cold front is forecast
to reach the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday. It is possible that weak
low pressure may form along the frontal boundary, from late Friday
into Saturday, in the north central Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
A cold front passes across the SE Bahamas, from the Turks and
Caicos Islands to Great Inagua, across SE Cuba, to 19N86W. The
cold front continues from 19N86W, beyond the SE part of the
Yucatan Peninsula. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent.

The GFS model for 500 mb shows an inverted trough within 150 nm to
the east of the coasts from Honduras to northern Costa Rica.
Precipitation: isolated moderate within 360 nm to the NE of the
east central coast of Nicaragua.

The current cold front will move slowly SE overnight and weaken, 
reaching from the east coast of Cuba to northeast Nicaragua, by 
Wednesday morning before dissipating. High pressure, currently 
across the Gulf of Mexico, will slide E-NE and build to the north
of the area late Thursday and Friday. The associated pressure 
gradient will increase the trade winds. Large north swell, that 
has been impacting the Atlantic Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean 
passage during the past few days, will continue to subside slowly
through Wednesday. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A cold front extends from 31N61W to the southern Bahamas near 
22N73W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is within 150 nm to 250 nm to the east of the cold front,
from 26N northward, and within 240 nm to 360 nm to the east of the
cold front from 20N to 26N. Isolated moderate within 180 nm to the
E and SE of the cold front from the NE coast of the Dominican
Republic to 24N. 

A stationary front passes through 32N29W to 26N41W. No significant
deep convective precipitation is apparent. 

The current cold front will drift SE overnight, and become 
stationary, then dissipate gradually through Thursday. A 
reinforcing cold front will sweep eastward across the waters north
of 27N through early Thursday. The front will be followed by weak
high pressure that will be moving off the Carolinas to the north 
of the area. A third cold front will move into the region from 
the north, reaching as far to the south as 27N by Saturday night, 
and become stationary through Sunday night. Strong high pressure 
will build southward on Sunday, resulting in strong northeast to 
east winds and building seas. 

$$
MT