000 AXNT20 KNHC 032319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 619 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 05N28W to the northern coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N-12N between 14W- 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb low is noted in the western Bay of Campeche near 19N95W with a stationary front stretching along the low from 18N94W to 20N97W. A trough also extends north of the low to 24N97W. Showers are seen along this system mostly S of 26N and W of 93W. Surface ridging dominates the rest of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high near 30N91W. The latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin. High pressure will build over the western and central Gulf through Wednesday in the wake of a cold front that moved through the region on Monday. The high will shift east of the area Thursday ahead of the next cold front entering the northwest Gulf on Friday. Weak low pressure may form along the frontal boundary late Friday into Saturday over the north central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front stretches across the NW Caribbean from east-central Cuba to northern Belize, from 21N78W to 19N88W. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 17N87W to 20N79W with showers seen along this trough. Scattered moderate convection is seen across the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico with isolated convection seen in the central Caribbean westward to the coast of Nicaragua. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is also enhancing convection in the SW Caribbean, S of 11N between 76W-81W. Upper level ridging extends into the eastern Caribbean which is inhibiting deep convection. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh trades in the east-central Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. The cold front will move SE overnight and weaken, reaching from the east coast of Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by Wednesday morning before dissipating. Meanwhile, a large low pressure system moving east and away from the US east coast has weakened the Bermuda High north of the basin. As a result, trade are weaker than usual. Stronger high pressure will build north of the area by Friday, with its associated gradient increasing the trades. Large long-period north swell that has been impacting the Atlantic waters and Atlantic passage the past few days will continue to slowly subside through Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N61W to the southern Bahamas near 22N73W. A large area of moderate to strong convection is seen ahead of the front from 20N-37N between 53W-65W. Farther east, a stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N31W and stretches SW to 27N39W with showers seen along the boundary. Surface ridging extends across the rest of the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high near 29N36W. The latest scatterometer data depicts strong southerly winds ahead of the front. The cold front will reach from near 25N65W to east coast of Cuba tonight where it will become stationary, then gradually dissipate through Thursday. A reinforcing cold front will move across the waters north of 27N through early Thursday, followed by weak high pressure moving off the Carolinas north of the area. Yet another cold front will move into the region from the north, reaching as far south as 27N by Saturday night and become stationary through Sunday night. Strong high pressure will build southward Sunday, resulting in strong northeast to east winds and building seas. $$ AKR