000 AXNT20 KNHC 031747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1247 PM EST Tue Dec 3 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 04N36W to 00N45W to 00N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N-07N between 25W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1021 mb high over SW Mississippi. A weak surface trough in the SW Gulf just off the coast of Mexico is producing scattered to broken clouds along with possible isolated showers south of 23N and west of 93W. Gentle anticyclonic flow prevails elsewhere in the basin. High pressure will continue over the Gulf through Wed. The high pressure will shift east of the area Thu ahead of the next cold front entering the northwest Gulf Fri. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form along the frontal boundary late Fri into Sat over the north central Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from east-central Cuba near 21N78W to near the Cayman Islands near 19N82W to 17N87W. The front is stationary from 17N87W to central Belize to southern Mexico near 17N94W. Isolated showers are seen along the front. Elsewhere, weak upper- level diffluence is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms between the west coast of Puerto Rico and the waters to the south of Hispaniola, from 16N-18.5N between 67.5W-73W. Additional isolated tstorms are over the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen near the border of Panama and Colombia over land, and over water south of 9.5N between 75W-78W. Isolated showers are also seen over the SE Caribbean, south of 14.5N between 62W-68W. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate strength winds over most of the basin with a few areas of fresh winds. The cold front will weaken and dissipate as it moves SE and reaches from eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by Wed. Meanwhile, trade winds are weaker than usual across the basin. Stronger high pressure will build north of the area by Fri, with its associated gradient increasing the trades. Large north swell dominating the Atlantic waters and passing through the passages into the northeast Caribbean today will gradually diminish over the next couple of days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N63W to 26N68W to Acklins Island Bahamas near 22.5N74W to east-central Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ahead of the front north of 25N between 58W-62W. Isolated moderate convection is north of 25N, between the front and 62W. The latest ASCAT pass shows near gale S to SW winds just ahead of the front north of 29N. Just NE of the Virgin Islands, weak upper-level diffluence is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms from 18N-22N between 61W-66W. Farther E, a cold front extends from 32N31W to 28N37W, continuing as stationary to 25N44W. Isolated showers are near the stationary front. Ridging covers the remainder of the basin. Due to a combination of wind wave and swell, significant wave heights in excess of 12 ft are expected this afternoon north of 28N between 58W-70W. The west Atlantic cold front will reach from near 25N65W to eastern Cuba and become stationary by late tonight. It will gradually dissipate through Thu. A reinforcing front or trough will move across the waters north of 27N through early Thu, followed by weak high pressure moving off the Carolinas north of the area. Yet another cold front will move into the region from the north, reaching as far south as 27N by Sat night. $$ Hagen