000 AXNT20 KNHC 022352 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 652 PM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... As of 02/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N71W to 23N82W. Recent ASCAT passes from 02/1412 UTC and 02/1526 UTC indicate that gale force winds are on both sides of the cold front north of 29N between 71W-79W. Gale force winds are also occurring in convection along and within 30 nm ahead of the front, north of 29N. Gales will continue N of 29N in association with the cold front through 03/0600 UTC. Through tonight, seas of 12-13 ft are expected north of 27N between 65W- 78W. Please read the High Seas Forecast found under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06160W to 03N33W to the coast of Suriname near 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 130 nm of the ITCZ between 26W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 02/2100 UTC, the cold front has dipped south toward the Yucatan Passage and extends westward from the Yucatan into the Bay of Campeche, from 21N90W to 21N94W to the Mexican coast near 18N94W. Showers are seen along this front. High pressure continues to build behind the cold front anchored by a 1027 mb high near 32N100W. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict strong to near gale-force westerly winds in the western Bay of Campeche, S of 20N and W of 95W. In the northern Gulf, fresh to strong northerly winds are noted. The cold front will move south of the Gulf by Tuesday morning. High pressure will build behind the front over the central Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday and Wednesday, then shift east of the area Thursday ahead of the next cold front entering the northwest Gulf late Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak upper-level trough extends into the south-central Caribbean Sea with upper level ridging on either side. Scattered moderate convection is noted across Puerto Rico and the US/British Virgin Islands. Some convection extends into the northern Leeward Islands. Otherwise, scattered showers are seen moving across the rest of the Lesser Antilles and portions of the Greater Antilles. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh winds north of Colombia, with moderate to fresh winds in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are seen elsewhere. A large low pressure system moving east and away from the US east coast has weakened the Bermuda High north of the basin. As a result, E tradewinds are weaker than usual. The high will rebuild by Fri, enhancing the tradewinds. Large N swell is dominating the Atlantic waters and passing through the passages into the NE Caribbean today. This swell will gradually diminish over the next couple of days. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight, then weaken and dissipate as it moves southeast and reaches from eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section in regards to the gale warning in the western Atlantic. A solid line of strong convection is moving along the front, seen from 30N-38N between 64W-70W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 27N-29N between 70W-74W. In the central Atlantic, a pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 23N40W to 31N35W. Two more troughs are also analyzed in the central Atlantic, one from 30N49W to 31N46W and the other from 22N55W to 24N52W. The rest of the basin is dominated by surface ridging anchored by a 1021 mb high near 28N49W. A cold front that has moved off the Florida peninsula this afternoon will reach from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Tuesday afternoon, then dissipate by Wednesday afternoon. Winds to gale force will accompany the front over waters north of 28N through tonight. Meanwhile, large long-period N swell spreading southward across the Atlc waters will slowly subside tonight and Tuesday. A second cold front will quickly move across the N waters on Wednesday and Thursday, with ridging building in behind on Thursday through Saturday. $$ AKR