000 AXNT20 KNHC 021654 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1154 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... As of 02/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N73W to 28N77.5W. Recent ASCAT passes from 02/1412 UTC and 02/1526 UTC indicate that gale force winds are on both sides of the cold front north of 29N between 71W-79W. Gale force winds are also occurring in convection along and within 30 nm ahead of the front, north of 28N. Gales will continue N of 29N in association with the cold front through tonight as the front moves eastward. Through tonight, seas of 12-17 ft are expected north of 27N between 65W-78W. Please read the High Seas Forecast found under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N12W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N31W to 03N40W to 06N54W. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm N and 60 nm S of the ITCZ between 14W-53W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 02/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Boca Raton Florida near 26N80W to 24N84W to 22N94W to the coast of the Mexican state of Veracruz near 19N95W to 18N96W to 19N97W, continuing as a stationary front inland over Mexico to beyond 22N100W. A line of showers about 15 nm wide is along the front across South Florida and over the Gulf of Mexico E of 92W. Clouds and possible showers cover the area from 19N-23N between 93W-98W. The latest ASCAT pass shows strong NW to N winds in the NE and north-central Gulf, north of 27N, with fresh N winds elsewhere north of the front. The cold front will move southward and into NW Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula by this evening, and will move south of the Gulf by Tue morning. High pressure will build behind the front over the central Gulf of Mexico late Tue and Wed, then shift east of the area Thu ahead of the next cold front entering the northwest Gulf late Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak upper-level trough is over the south-central Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and tstorms are seen from 11N-15N between 68W- 71W. Scattered clouds and isolated showers are also noted in between Jamaica and the coast of Nicaragua, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough along 59/60W from 07N-14N is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from near Barbados to Trinidad. The latest ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate NE winds over western portions of the basin. Low pres moving E and away from the United States east coast has weakened the ridge N of the basin. Large N swell is dominating the Atlantic waters and passing through the passages into the NE Caribbean today and will diminish by Tue night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight, then weaken and dissipate as it moves SE and reaches from eastern Cuba to northeast Nicaragua by Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 02/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from 32N72W to 28N77.5W to Boca Raton Florida near 26N80W to 24N84W. A line of scattered moderate showers and tstorms is within 15 nm of the cold front to the east of 78W. A line of showers is within 15 nm of the cold front west of 78W. Farther E, two surface highs of 1022 and 1021 mb, respectively, are centered near 33N50W and 27N50W. A surface trough is in between the two highs. Another surface trough extends from 32N35W to 23N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm east of the trough, north of 30N. East of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough along 59/60W from 07N-14N is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms from near Barbados to Trinidad. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 16N-19N between 55W-59W. The cold front from 32N72W to Boca Raton Florida will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba early Tue, then stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba by early Wed before dissipating Thu. Winds to gale force will accompany the front over waters north of 29N through tonight. Meanwhile large, long-period N swell spreading S across the Atlc waters will slowly subside through Tue. $$ Hagen