000 AXNT20 KNHC 021143 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 643 AM EST Mon Dec 2 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... A cold front is passing through 31N80W to 30N81W. Within 30.5N76.5W to 30.5N78W to 30.5N80W to 31N80W to 31N76.5W to 30.5N76.5W...SW to W winds 30 to 35 knots, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 14 feet in NE swell. The 24-hour forecast position of the cold front is: from 31N67W to 22N78W. Within 27N64W to 26N74W to 31N67W to 31N57W to 27N64W...SW winds 25 to 35 knots, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet in NW to N swell. Expect that the wind speeds will be less than gale-force at 48 hours, meaning by Tuesday night before Wednesday morning. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W, to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W, to 02N37W, to 01N39W, and 01N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to widely scattered moderate and locally strong within 180 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 20W and 40W. Isolated moderate within 30 nm to the south of the ITCZ, and from 03N to 07N between 40W and 53W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is passing through the NE corner of Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to a SW Gulf of Mexico 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 23N96W. The front continues to the coast of Mexico, along 96W just to the south of 20N. A surface trough is about 100 nm to the SE of the front between the Florida coast and 93W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds are from 27N southward from 90W westward. Rainshowers are possible within 210 nm to the SE of the rest of the cold front. Broad upper level W to NW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level wind flow is cyclonic, from 24N northward from 90W eastward, in agreement with the deep layer trough that is supporting the current cold front. The current cold front will move to the south of the southeast Gulf of Mexico today. High pressure will build behind the front, into the central Gulf of Mexico late Tuesday and Wednesday. The high pressure will shift to the east of the area on Thursday, ahead of the next cold front that is entering the northwest Gulf of Mexico late on Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Satellite imagery and the GFS model for 250 mb show an anticyclonic circulation center along the central border sections of Honduras and Nicaragua. Broad anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea, from Central America, toward 70W. Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W eastward. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N southward between 63W and 71W. Low pressure, moving E from the U.S.A., has weakened the ridge that is to the N of the basin. Large N swell, that is passing through the Atlantic passages into the NE Caribbean Sea, will diminish by Tuesday night. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sea tonight, and then weaken and dissipate from eastern Cuba to NE Nicaragua, by Wednesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is passing through 31N80W to 30N81W. Within 30.5N76.5W to 30.5N78W to 30.5N80W to 31N80W to 31N76.5W to 30.5N76.5W...SW to W winds 30 to 35 knots, and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 14 feet in NE swell. The 24-hour forecast position of the cold front is: from 31N67W to 22N78W. Within 27N64W to 26N74W to 31N67W to 31N57W to 27N64W...SW winds 25 to 35 knots, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14 feet in NW to N swell. Expect that the wind speeds will be less than gale-force at 48 hours, meaning by Tuesday night before Wednesday morning. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...for more details. A dissipating cold front passes through 32N38W to 24N49W, and to 24N47W. A dissipating stationary front continues from 24N49W to 22N56W, and to 20N63W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 240 nm to the east of the frontal boundary from 28N northward, and within 60 nm on either side of the front between 48W and 52W. A surface trough is along 55W/56W from 19N southward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 16N to 20N between 50W and 60W. Isolated moderate from 12N southward between 52W and 61W. The current cold front, that is moving off the northeast Florida coast, will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba early on Tuesday. The front will stall from 25N65W to eastern Cuba by early Wednesday, before dissipating on Thursday. The wind speeds to gale-force will accompany the front in the waters north of 29N through tonight. Large, long-period N swell, that is spreading S across the Atlantic Ocean waters, will persist through Tuesday. $$ MT