000 AXNT20 KNHC 012342 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 642 PM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast into the western Atlantic waters late tonight into early Monday. This front will enhance the winds across the area, reaching strong to gale force range on either side of the front mainly north of 30N between 76W-80W by tonight, 02/0300 UTC, and will continue through Tuesday night, 03/0600 UTC. Seas will range from 12-17 ft. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01N-08N between 19W-45W. Scattered thunderstorms are noted south of the monsoon trough near the African coast from 02N-07N and E of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to press south and east across the Gulf. The front enters the waters from the Florida Panhandle near 30N84W and stretches westward to 25N96W and bends southward to the Mexican coast near 22N98W. Showers are seen along the front. Showers are also moving across the eastern Gulf about 100 nm ahead of the front. A 1013 mb low is analyzed in the western Bay of Campeche near 21N97W with a trough extending along the low from 19N96W to 23N97W. Upper level ridging extends across the southern portion of the Gulf. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh NW winds in the NW Gulf with gentle to moderate NW winds in the NE Gulf. Light to gentle southerly winds are noted in the southern Gulf. The cold front will reach from near Tampa Florida to Tampico Mexico tonight, followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the northeast Gulf. The front will sweep south of the southeast Gulf by Monday and high pressure will build over the central Gulf behind the front through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep ridging extends across most of the basin which is inhibiting deep convection. A stationary front over the central Atlantic extends SW into the U.S. Virgin Islands enhancing scattered showers in the area. Some scattered showers are present from the Windward Passage to the SW Caribbean. The latest scatterometer data and surface observation depict moderate to fresh trades in the central and NW Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. High pressure building north of the area is allowing moderate to occasionally fresh northeasterly winds across most of the Caribbean, while large northerly swell is moving through the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will veer more easterly and diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tuesday morning. The front will stall and eventually dissipate from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information about the developing gale in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N41W to a 1015 mb low near 21N56W, then transitions to a stationary front at that point to 18N66W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of this front from 24N43W to 31N39W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and 250 nm ahead of the front mainly north of 23N. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front, anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N67W. To the south, a surface trough is analyzed from 09N55W to 16N54W with scattered showers along and east of it, mostly E of 68W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the incoming cold front in the western Atlantic, N of 29N and W of 78W.. Large, long-period N swell spreading S across the Atlantic waters will persist through Tuesday. High pressure along 28N will shift east of the area this evening ahead of a cold front moving off northeast Florida coast. Strong to gale force winds are expected on either side of this front north of 30N through Monday. $$ AKR