000 AXNT20 KNHC 011125 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 625 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast into the western Atlantic waters by early Monday. This front will enhance the winds across the area, reaching the strong to gale force range on either side of the front mainly north of 30N beginning on 02/0300 UTC and continue through 03/0600 UTC. Seas will range from 12-16 ft in that area. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ between 21W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep ridging prevails over the Gulf with the upper level ridge centered over the Yucatan Passage. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate southerly winds across the western Gulf with light to gentle easterly winds in the eastern half of the basin. A cold front moving across southern Texas coast will enter the NW Gulf waters this morning, then reach from near Tampa Florida to Tampico Mexico by tonight, followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the northern Gulf. The front will sweep south of the southeast Gulf Mon, and high pressure will build over the central Gulf behind the front through mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep ridging extends across most of the basin which is inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh trades in the central and NW Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. The high pressure building north of the area is allowing moderate to occasionally fresh northeasterly winds across most of the Caribbean, as large northerly swell reaches the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will veer more easterly and diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel by Tue morning. The front will stall and eventually dissipate from the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information about the developing gale in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N43W to 18N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front mainly north of 29N. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered 29N74W. To the south, a surface trough is analyzed from 16N50W to 11N56W with scattered showers along and east of it. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front, N of 27N between 30W-45W. Large, long-period northerly swell is occurring east of the Bahamas and will persist the early part of the week. High pressure along 28N will shift east of the area through late today ahead of a cold front moving off northeast Florida coast this evening. $$ ERA