000 AXNT20 KNHC 010531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1231 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast into the western Atlantic waters and will bring strong to gale force winds on either side of the front beginning on 02/0000 UTC and will continue through 03/1800 UTC. These winds are expected N of 30N between 77W-80W. Seas will range from 12-16 ft in that area. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N11W to 05N14W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and north of the ITCZ between 22W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep ridging prevails over the Gulf with the upper level ridge centered over the Yucatan Passage. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh southerly winds across the western Gulf with light to gentle easterly winds in the eastern basin. High pressure sliding east of the Gulf is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the northwest Gulf, off the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Straits of Florida. A cold front will move off Texas coast overnight. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Sunday night, followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the northeast Gulf. The front will sweep south of the southeast Gulf on Monday. High pressure will build over the central Gulf behind the front through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Light showers are noted across the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise, deep ridging extends across most of the basin which is inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh trades in the central and NW Caribbean, while gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. High pressure building north of the area allow moderate to occasionally fresh northeasterly winds across most of the Caribbean tonight, as large northerly swell reaches the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will veer more easterly and diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel Tue morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information about the developing gale expected in the western Atlantic. A cold front extends across the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 19N64W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the front mainly north of 28N. Surface ridging is building in the wake of the front, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered 29N75W. To the south, a surface trough is analyzed from 15N48W to 10N54W with scattered moderate convection along and east of it. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front, N of 27N between 30W- 45W. Large, long-period northerly swell is occurring east of the Bahamas, and will persist into early next week. High pressure is building in along 28N, and will shift east of the area Sunday ahead of another cold front moving off northeast Florida coast late Sunday. Strong to gale force winds are expected on either side of this front well to the north and northeast of the Bahamas early next week. $$ ERA