000 AXNT20 KNHC 010023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 723 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2320 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast into the western Atlantic waters and will bring strong to minimal gale force winds on either side of the front beginning on 02/0000 UTC and will continue through 03/1800 UTC. These gale-force winds are expected N of 30N between 77W-80W. Seas will range from 12-16 ft. Please refer to the Atlantic Ocean High Seas Forecast under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 and under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 07N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 03N-10N between 20W-44W. Near Africa, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N-08N E of 14W. GULF OF MEXICO... Deep ridging continues to prevail over the Gulf with the upper level ridge centered over the Yucatan Passage. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh southerly winds across the western Gulf with light to gentle ESE winds in the eastern basin. High pressure sliding east of the Gulf is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the northwest Gulf, off the Yucatan Peninsula and in the Straits of Florida. A cold front will move off Texas coast tonight. The front will reach from near Tampa, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Sunday night, followed by fresh to strong NW winds over the northeast Gulf. The front will sweep south of the southeast Gulf on Monday. High pressure will build over the central Gulf behind the front through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front extends from Puerto Rico near 18N66W to the central Caribbean near 14N77W. Showers are seen along this boundary. Light showers are noted across the Lesser Antilles. Otherwise, deep ridging extends across most of the basin which is inhibiting deep convection. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict moderate to fresh trades in the central and NW Caribbean with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. High pressure building north of the area behind the cold front will allow moderate to occasionally fresh northeasterly winds across most of the Caribbean through tonight, as large northerly swell reaches the Atlantic passages in the northeast Caribbean. Winds will veer more easterly and diminish thereafter as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of another cold front expected to move into the Yucatan Channel early Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section for the developing gale expected in the western Atlantic. A weakening cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N44W to 19N64W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near this boundary from 22N-31N between 38W-47W. An upper level disturbance moving through the central Atlantic is causing another area of scattered moderate convection from 19N-26N between 35W-43W. A surface trough is analyzed from 07N50W to 13N47W with scattered moderate convection seen along this boundary from 09N-15N between 44W-53W. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin. The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front, N of 27N between 36W- 45W. Large, long-period northerly swell is occurring east of the Bahamas, and will persist into early next week. High pressure is building in along 28N, and will shift east of the area Sunday ahead of another cold front moving off northeast Florida coast late Sunday. Strong to gale force winds are expected on either side of this front well to the north and northeast of the Bahamas early next week. $$ AKR